You could really see the IDP trend change last year.
As you'd look through the box scores in 2008, you'd consistently see DBs/Safties getting 7-9 solos, plus pass deflections, an INT and the good ones force fumbles and get sacks.
The bottom line was your #2 & #3 LBs were getting you 14-17 points on good days and many DBs on the waiver wire were getting 24-27 points. You'd see guys in your league pick up these guys like a Kevin Payne from Chicago and they'd get 5 points out of him the following week.
The problem was how to "catch this lightening in a bottle". It's difficult to consistently predict when guys NOT named Winfield, Otogwe or Gibril Wilson are going to go off. For instance, Cortland Finnegan got 25 points the other night against the Steelers. We knew Finnegan was good, and is probably not even on your waiver wire, but #1 LB numbers good? Seriously, did anyone really think Big Ben would end up throwing for more yards than Drew Brees week 1?
So what do you do to get in on this trend on a "poor man's budget"?
This is not going to be easy for you to do, but my recommendation is to cut your riskiest draft pick to make room for a boom or bust guy you can pick up on a week to week basis. Playing matchups like this can be a lot of fun and very rewarding when your weekly research pays off.
Trust me, it was really hard for me to do what I'm suggesting. I get very attached to my secret sleeper draft picks and all summer I looked forward to sneaking Keith Rivers out from under everyone in my league. Well, I did, but I made the decision to drop Rivers to open this slot I'm suggesting to you. That's how much I believe in this strategy. Could Keith Rivers potentially get me 15 points a week? Maybe. But my gut says he'll be under 10 points a week and I want to win my league, not finish 3rd or 4th. If you want to be #1 and win your league, you have to swing for the fences from at least one slot on your team. Sure, you could get a fairly solid SS who consistently gets you 6 or 8 points a game or you can play the weekly matchups from that slot and get a 15 to 20 or even higher guy. Maybe you choose guys from the wire who are playing the Cardinals or New Orleans. Or maybe it's the week side DE for whoever is rushing Big Ben. You have to get aggressive early or you won't make it into the playoffs in competitive leagues.
Don't get me wrong, you must have a strong foundation first in order to attempt this strategy. I know I'm going to get consistent play out of my LBs Jerod Mayo, Curtis Lofton and Laurinaitis. And I obviously feel comfortable with my DB Otogwe, but I want to give myself the opportunity to have a potential "grand slam" pick each week.
So why should you trust my advice this year for waiver wire pick ups? Besides doing research for a living, I LOVE IDP & I've been playing and winning for a long time.
17 comments:
Hi, my IDP league have this format QB,QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,TE,W/T,W/R,K,K,DEF,DEF,D,DB,DB,DL,DL,BN,BN,BN.
We only have 3 bench players and I used it all for offense players.
Here's my defense players :D Patrick Willis, DB Eric Weddle, DB Anthony Henry, DL Osi Umenyiora, DL Kroy Biermann.
I'm planning to keep Willis, Weddle and Umenyiora and rotate 2 players each week depending on the match ups. Does it sound like a good plan? Should I rotate Umenyiora also?
Osi! WOW! Never rotate him as you know. Did you hit the jackpot with Biermann or what!!! The DLs I'm targeting off the wire this week are A. Brown from Chicago and Arizona's Campbell against the Jaqs this week.
But you don't need me. You're team is SUPER STACKED!!! Stay put, make no moves, don't breathe and where the exact same shirt you wore last Sunday LOL & Congrats!!!
Following your "do not go for the guy who just had a big game" rule I have dropped Biermann for A Brown. Hopefully he'll perform. Please continue writing every week, you are my secret weapon in winning my IDP league LOL... Anw, thanks for the help, God bless you.
I love your IDP articles, and I have a specific question about my team, and a new strategy I am adopting. Our league allows for 3 IDP players along with our regular offensive players. Right now I have Julius Peppers, Gibril Wilson, and London Fletcher... So, I am obviously happy with their production. However, our league is a PPR league, and is very rewarding towards the Return Game.
Because of the importance of return yards in my league, I was hoping you could suggest some good IDP players who will see the lion's share of returns for their team this year.. I was thinking Josh Wilson, Will Blackmon, Chris Carr, etc.
Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated, I really respect your outlook in this regard. Thanks in advance
@ Denver SEO - Is McKelvin already gone http://www.nfl.com/players/leodismckelvin/profile?id=MCK224554
He's a full-time starting DB and a heck of a return man. Despite his bone-headed move single-handedly losing the game against the Pats the other night (which lead to Buffalo fans vandalizing his house, by the way), I think he's an excellent pick up this week. Nothing is more motivational for a pro than having a long week of bad press. Not many weeks get much longer than McKelvin's has been. He's going to play with heart and soul against Tampa Bay this week so he can redeem himself and get some good press.
Hey, I love your blog and have been reading it, and following your advice, for two seasons now. This week I really want to pick up and start both Delmars and Sessions. We start four LB's/DL's and two CB's. Right now I'm planning on starting Vilma, David Harris, Cooper, and Sessions at LB and Cedric Griffin and Delmas at CB.
In order to do the above I'd have to drop two of the following:
Michael Lewis, Eric Coleman or Antonio Pierce, Karlos Dansby. Which two would you drop?
Also, Ashante Samuel is available on the waiver wire, is he a better start than anyone listed above for this week? Thanks and keep up the good work!
@ Mayor -
Hey, I love your blog and have been reading it, and following your advice, for two seasons now.
Thank you very much Mayor! I really appreciate that. Your 4 starting LBs this week should be Vilma, Cooper, Dansby & Harris in that order.
And your starting CBs should be Cedric Griffin & Delmas or Coleman (Those two are so close in ranking that you're fine with either Delmas or Coleman)
I would drop Antonio Pierce without even blinking. And Michael Lewis is good, but is just too inconsistent to trust. So those would be the two that I would drop.
I'd pass on A. Samuel.
Session is a great "waiver wire" pickup, but keep in mind that there's a reason he's available. The only time I would ever recommend him over Dansby is if Dansby had a really weak matchup the same week that Session going up against the Chargers, who he historically plays incredible against.
I just stumbled upon your blog this afternoon because I was looking for help/advice on the IDP positions and I really liked what I read here!
This is my first year playing FF with these positions. We're allowed one D, DB and DL position. Return yards count in our league too. I don't really have a clue what I'm doing with those spots yet. Currently, I have Karlos Dansby, Antrel Rolle (for return yards) and Osi Umenyiora. Osi did great for me last week (17.5 pts)! The other two guys were all right...both got me 7 points each.
Are those three guys decent enough to hang on to? I'm leary about having two guys from the same team on my roster, so I'm considering dropping one of them. My first thought is drop Rolle for Delmas. (Just about everyone you have talked about this week is available in my league, but Delmas is your most recommended guy!) Guys like Ray Lewis, DeMarcus Ware, James Harrison, Vilma, Durant are all available too.
Ahhhhhh!!! My head feels like it's going to explode, but I love the challenge and I'm trying to learn on the fly. Any help, suggestions you can offer will be greatly appreciated! Thanks!
@ Assassin Buffalo's CB Leodis McKelvin would be your first guy to target this week in a league that rewards return yards. But Rolle is decent as well.
Mr. Monk - I see you're pretty high on Leodius McKelvin as an IDP player b/c he's also a return man.
How do you feel about Courtland Finnegan? He returns punts as well.
Both are Free Agents in my league and I'm looking for a DB replacement for New Orleans SS Roman Harper.
Here's the rest of my Def too, whatcha think?
D James Harrison
D Jon Beason
DB Gibril Wilson
DB Roman Harper
DL Justin Tuck
DL Aaron Kampman
~ GO HEELS! ~
@Dom If Finnegan is available in you league, snatch him up ASAP. Because my niche is Waiver Wire pickups, I generally stick with suggestions of guys that have the most potential to be on the wire, but Finnegan has no business being on the wire and should have been drafted. One think to keep in mind though is McKelvin is a kick return man for a defense that will allow a lot of scoring so his kick return yards will be substantially higher than a punt returners yards. Either way Finnegan is a better DB than McKelvin and that generally overules the return yards. It really depends on your leagues scoring system for return yards.
Amazing Dfenz you got there!!! You certainly caught some guys sleeping during your draft. Glad I don't have to play you.
Monk, Winfield is on my waiver wire. Should I drop Roman Harper for him?
@ Gore No doubt! Winfield is arguable the best DB in all of FF!
Monk, Osi Umenyiora is available but I have Mario Williams currently in the slot, which would you prefer and why?
Monk, Osi Umenyiora is available but I have Mario Williams currently in the slot, which would you prefer and why?
IDP Tim - I'd stick with Mario because the Giants not only have at least 3 other great lineman to compete with for sacks, but they also have a great running offense that keeps the Giants D off the field more often than most teams.
Mario is the one and only and the Texans work hard at designing defensive stunts and schemes to get him to the QB.
He also tends to put up more consistent #'s from week to week than Osi. Although when Osi has a big game, know one can compete, but it's very hard to predict when he'll have that "big game".
Hey monk, we start only 4 IDPs in our league 2 DBs n 2 DLs. Currently I have 3 DBs Cortland Finnegan,Charles Tillman & Antoine Winfield and 1 DL Osi Umeyiora.I need to get rid of 1 DB n get a DL. Who should I cut?? n Who should I target off the waiver??
If you could help that wud be great.. John in Ireland
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