IDP 2010 NFL Fantasy Football Early Waiver Wire Pick Ups

I've done some studying for us and have rethought some advice I've given early on. to some readers. After Patrick Chung was brought back to my attention, I see a real gold mine here at safety.


Pick up Now

SS Patrick Chung (NE) - It does not need to be officially declared. Patrick Chung has become the starting strong safety in NE this year. He is playing the role of Rodney Harrison and will be in position to rack up a ton of tackles in this defense. Consider him a DB2 with upside.

SS TJ Ward (CLE) - He's the starting SS for a team that will have a ton of 3 and outs on offense. He has a nose for the football and loves to tackle.

Think of Chung as last years T. Branch (only Chung already has 1 year of NFL experience).  And think of TJ Ward as last years L. Delmas. I think Branch finished as a top 5 DB and Delmas finished in the top 10 or very close to it in tackle heavy IDP leagues. You don't want to reach for these guys in your draft, but you won't want to finish your draft without one of them as your upside guy on your bench.  I feel real good about starting Chung right away as DB2.

LB D’Qwell Jackson (CLE) It feels weird to have to suggest picking up such an elite LB, but his injury rumors have varied enough that I think it has scared a lot of owners off.  The latest report is his rehab is on schedule. He’s been cleared to lift weights and hopes to return as early as the regular season opener. He added that there’s “no chance” he will be placed on IR.

So smoke em if you got em!


Rethinking

Dan Connor (CAR) Yes, Connor is the starting middle linebacker for the Panthers, but he'll only be a 2 down back,. He's fine for an LB5, but I apologize for getting too excited about this guy too early. If you did pick him up based on my advice, I recommend an oldie, but goody from my "you heard it hear first" calls from last year. And that would be the one and only. David Hawthorne.


Rising Higher

LB David Hawthorne (SEA) - For the value where you are going to get Hawthorne in your draft, I would target him over Tatupu. How much evidence do we need?  The guys a beast and Leroy Hill will not be a Seahawk long with his off the field issues.  So Hawthorne is starting at ILB right next to Tatupu. An easy way to think of this is similar to the NYG LB situation.  Sure, Keith Bulluck is the starting MLB there, but the guy you really want on that team for IDP is Michael Boley (NYG). It's the same with Hawthorne. He's an LB3 with the potential to be a top 5 IDP LB at the end of the year. Now that's value.

SS Sean Jones (TB) - Sean Jones has won the starting strong safety job over Sabbi Piscatelli. Although this battle could go on later in the year, Jones has definitively secured the number one job on yet another crappy offensive team.  He will rack up the tackles because he's known as a hitter so he's a guy to watch in the box scores.


Watching from a Distance

DE Kroy Biermann (ATL) - He's topping all the camp visitors lists this year as the "stand-out" guy. He's had a terrific pre-season and he's shown a real knack for getting to the QB. He's someone to keep on your radar iat a very thin position.


LB Andra Davis (BUF) - Remember how he was always on the cusp of  "do I or don't I pick him up and plug him in" last year?  He lined up next to DJ Williams and was fairly solid all year.  This year he lines up next to Poz as a starter. And that Bills defense will be on the field for a lot more plays than that Broncos D was last year. More plays, more opportunities and all this guy needs is a slight nudge to move him up to LB5 material with LB4 or 2 upside.

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32 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey monk I see you are making the play with Boley from the Giants. Instead of Bole I am holding onto bulluck - word is that he will be the man at starting MLB.

Thoughts? I think he is a major stud in the making this year if he holds down that spot

Michael Monk said...

Agreed! Bulluck over Boley.

Boley is my 4th or 5th LB at this point.

Boley is a bit like my Keith Rivers of last year. All the potential to succeed is there, but it could be a boom or bust play. Obviously, in the case of Rivers, it was a bust. But Boley could be a HUGE boom too. Bulluck is definitely the safer option and will be very solid all year.

Anonymous said...

youre thoughts on rolando mclain this year? ive got him as my starting lb with hawthorne as my dp position but also have morrison on the bench...

Michael Monk said...

All indications are that rolando mclain is the next patrick willis.

He was great in college, he's in a great situation now with Oakland and I'm sure he'll put up fine numbers.

I'll admit that I'm never ready to anoint anyone until I at least see it in action on the pro level. I haven't seen it yet. He's perfect on paper and maybe he'll be everything that everyone says he is, but it's a too big of a leap of faith for my taste. He went ahead of DJ Williams & London Fletcher in my league. I'd rather have guys I know can get the job done than trust all the "experts". I hope I'm wrong and he's everything that everyone says he is.

You've got all my "wait & see" guys on your team. I'm waiting to see how they use Hawthorne. And out of all 3 of your guys, I feel best about Morrison's situation, but still would feel better waiting and seeing what he does on his new team. So your guys all have risks in my book. However, they also all have the potential to finish as top 10 IDP linebackers so it's a good risk. I'd feel better if you had a Ray Lewis sprinkled in there as your "safe" guy, but I think you'll be more than fine.

Stephen Kammerman said...

Wembley was a beast. Look out, Oakland might actually be decent this year. Their D was actually good last year.

Anonymous said...

Monk, couple of quick q's for you. Some guy just dropped Levy,Chung,Timmons. Not sure if I should drop any of my guys to get any of em? My players: Willis, Poz, D'Qwell, Durant, Tatupu, Aaron Curry, George Wilson, Dawan Landry. Also, what is your thoughts on George Wilson, I picked him up per your post? And finally what the heck should I be doing about my Seattle LB's???

Thanks,

Will

Michael Monk said...

Willis & Poz are MONEY as you know.

Stashing D'Qwell until he comes back around week 3 is well worth the roster spot.

Tatupu should be solid. I view him as I would a Gary Bracket or Tulluck. He's an MLB on a team that will be on D a lot and run on a lot.

Curry is interesting. I like him, but not near as much as I like D. Levy. That's really your call and how much you get for sacks vs. tackles in your league. Levy is just a gut feeling I have. If your in a tackle heavy league, I would think very hard about going after Levy over Curry, but your fine either way to start the season and then we can get a better look at both in action.

Durant is one of my sleepers and should do you fine until DQ is back in week 3, but Timmons might be better than Durant. Too early to tell so your good either way. And I like Chung, but he might not even start so I'd leave him on the WW for now.

Both of your safeties are solid. George Wilson is a super stud. You'll see!!! Hold onto him.
And I like Dawan Landry also.

Anonymous said...

August 23 Update: Byrd just underwent successful groin surgery and could be back for the start of the regular season. He shouldn't be downgraded that much.

Anonymous said...

Monk,I need your advice n our league we play 2 DBs & 2 DLS.At the mo I Have E Weddle & G Wilson @ DB but R Harper,delmas,winfield,landry,bethea etc are available should i keep what i have or pick these up???

Michael Monk said...

You have E Weddle & G Wilson @ DB

And those Waiver guys are all high quality guys. I like Harper,delmas,winfield,landry & bethea

I would stick with Weddle & Wilson though and watch how the season unfolds. You'll drive yourself crazy trying to guess at this stage in the game. You'll be fine with what you have and you can always switch in week 2 or 3 if you see a TJ Ward or Patrick Chung blowing up more than any of these guys. Plenty of meat on the bone out there. I'll get you through. Your off to a great start though!

marmstrong said...

Hey monk - I have Boley, Beason, and Stewart Bradley - who I think will return to breakout statues. i have Cushing on the bench.

Shold I drop one to grab HAwthorne?

Michael Monk said...

@marmstrong
No, your very solid for now. If Boley or Bradley start struggling then Yes. Love the Cushing stash and hide!

marmstrong said...

One more for you Monk:

MY DBs:
C.Tillman
A.Wilson
B.Sanders
P.Chung

Should I drop Sanders or someone else to grab TJ Ward? I too am a big believer in the uncanny ability of the crappy CLE O and front line to create stud DBs - E.Wright, L.Bodden, etc - what do you think? Thanks!

Michael Monk said...

@marmstrong

No, I think you look real good. Ward is just an early flyer at this point. He is still a rookie so he could blow some assignments and get pulled. P. Chung is more of a sure thing and the other guys you have on your team are real solid. Excellent way to start the season. Let's give it a week or two and see which "dogs can hunt" and which ones can't.

Anonymous said...

Hey Monk,

Have a DL question for you for week 1.

Would you play Will Smith vs Min or Mario Williams vs Ind?

Thanks

Sean

Michael Monk said...

I'd go Will Smith vs. Min over M. Williams vs. INDY

Manning is very hard to sack and MIN line is crap right now. Farve is going to be slammed to the turf and probably fumble at least once in that game.

SD said...

Hey Monk
I have below lineup, DO I need to make any changes at DB and my LB?
Pozz, Trent Cole, Julius Peppers ,Oshiomogho Atogwe,Charles Tillman, Demorrio Williams, Kamerion Wimbley

Do I need to upgrade my LB, I am doubtful about DemorrioWIlliams, should I look for other options?

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Michael Monk said...

@ SD

Don't worry about Demorrio Williams as much as Wimbley. Wimbley was a suggestion if he happens to be listed as defensive linemen in your league and you can use him like that. Some potential sleepers out there for replacement that would be upgrades over Wimbley to start the season are Andra Davis or Dan Connor. Both of which I would trust more than K. Wimbley to start the season. D. Williams is a stud, but you are right about that being risky with D. Johnson still hanging around. If Justin Durant or D. Hawthorne or by some miracle D. Levy is out there, go them. (especially Levy, but I severely doubt he's on your wire) Take Hawthorne first, then Durant, then Connor then A. Davis. All over Wimbley. Hold on to Demorrio. He's worth the slight risk. He'll get you very steady high end numbers and so far he's still the starting MLB.

Anonymous said...

hey monk. long time listener, first time caller. i have 4 studs in my defensive corps, 3 of which i can play a week. out of Poz, morrison, mcclain, and d'qwell, who would you roll with the majority of the season? also, who are you picking for the big one? im gonna go pittsburgh beating atlanta.

Anonymous said...

hey monk, would u start rolando mclain over lofa tatupu in week 1?

Michael Monk said...

Regarding your team with Poz, morrison, mcclain, and d'qwell and you can start 3 out of 4.

First, AWESOME drafting! My gut says Poz Mclain & Dqwell for most of the season. Obviously, it all depends on Dqwell's health. He's VERY injury prone, but Morrison could end up being a superstud so we'll just wait and see. You are in a great situation though because you're all set.

Michael Monk said...

Would I start rolando mclain over lofa tatupu in week 1?

Personally, no. And the reason is because I know he's been hyped a ton and his potential is through the roof, but you know what you have in tatupu and you know the numbers he will put up. If you have a choice, just watch Mclain week one and make sure he is the next Patrick Willis. Hi is still just a rookie afterall.

Smiling Assassin said...

Hi Monk:

Great site and solid advice all the way around. I have 4 slots, 20 of those being any defensive player. I have Ray Lewis and Tulloch in place there, with Dansby as my LB spot and Weddle at DB. I am sitting Pat Chung for Weddle--your take on this?

Michael Monk said...

@ smiling assasin

Absolutely correct to start Weddle over Chung. The truth is, I'm making an educated assumption about Chung based on system and small sample of play we've seen from him.

I'm a waiver wire advice guy so I focus more on looking for Diamonds in the rough for people. Weddle is a top 5 DB and there is no doubt about his status. If you were asking me A. Bethea vs. Chung, then I'd have to really think about that. But Pollard, Bell, T. Branch, Weddle etc. are your guys.

That being said, keep a close eye on Chung and TJ Ward and maybe even Sean Jones over in TB. This is that crucial time of year where you need to snag trends early. Just like on the offensive side, you don't know until you see them play and perhaps Matthew Stafford shows he's more valuable then Jay Cutler after the first 2 or 3 games are under their belt. You gotta move on that before the other people in your league recognize that.

Long.Live.The.Fade said...

What you do you of these guys..

DET Zack Follett LB
KCC Jovan Belcher LB
STL Craig Dahl DB
NEP Devin McCourty DB
GBP Morgan Burnett DB
TEN Alterraun Verner DB

Mostly Rookies and 2nd Year Players.

Anonymous said...

Hey monk... What's your thoughts on Pos this week? He's coming of groin surgery, as I'm sure you know. Should I roll with him or look for a replacement. If so, would Y. bell or T Branch be a no brainer play over him? I would have to drop him all together unfortunately to fill that slot with someone else. Thanks!

Michael Monk said...

DON'T Drop Poz! Your overthinking a bit much for week 1. Poz will get you plenty this week even if he does start slightly slower than Branch or Bell, he'll be the one at the top at the end of the season so don't bail on him before you at least see him play to see if the groin slows him in any way.

Michael Monk said...

@ Long Live the Fade

Regarding
DET Zack Follett LB
KCC Jovan Belcher LB
STL Craig Dahl DB
NEP Devin McCourty DB
GBP Morgan Burnett DB
TEN Alterraun Verner DB

Those are all good guys to be watching. Excellent list! Burnett is the starting SS for Green Bay and I am watching closely. I got burned getting too excited about Bigby in the past and defensive scheme does have a lot to do with success. GB dbs have proved to be more successful than the safeties on this team. Similar to the Vikings.
I'm really siked about McCourty. He's my favorite on your list.
Belcher is the second most exciting guy I have on my list, but the KC coach is incredibly unpredictable. Next week, Demorrio Williams could be there and the week after that, Cory Mays. That coach is nuts.
Dahl is the starter, but I've got to more out of him this year.
Zack Follet needs to prove he's got a nose for the ball. He could be the next Quincy Black (TB) type or just another Matt Wilhelm type.
And last I checked, Verner isnt' starting, but correct me if I'm wrong about that. Tennessee DBs are ALWAYS productive so he's good to have on the watch list.

Graham said...

Monk,
Would you pick up Derrick Johnson or Clay Matthews first?
Thanks

Michael Monk said...

@ Graham

I would pick up Clay Matthews first over D. Johnson of KC.

The KC coach is VERY unpredictable as is D. Johnson. He got in the doghouse very quickly last year and was benched the whole year for Demorrio Williams. That makes him a bigger risk than Clay Matthews. Otherwise, I see them at almost the exact same level at this point, but Matthews will get you more sacks.

Anonymous said...

Monk, great week again, felize navidad!
ok lets get serious:

cb-verner-tenn, aye-aye-captain munnerly, grimes or mccourty?
lb-j anderson been fading, spikes, bishop, laurianaitass-chung-getting less time??, pollard,or elam who let me down last week?

dl-t kelly, r mathis, t laboy, t mcbride?

tx

captain fred