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ANOTHER NICE DL TIP, SEE BELOW
DBs (Defensive Backs)
B. Scott. (BUF) was back at his natural safety position week 12 and you might not have even known it because he put up tackle numbers like he was still playing LB. Chris Draft looks like he will play linebacker for the rest of the year. But Scott still put up bigger numbers than MLB Poz. That Bills defense is such a gold mine vs. NYJ for week 13. Between T. Jones running and Sanchez throwing INTs, I love Scott and Safety D. Whitner (BUF).
S. Jones (PHI) vs. Matt Ryan or his backup. Whoever it is will try to force the ball to Tony Gonzalas a TON. Because any team that faces the Eagles knows they are very weak at covering tight ends. That will lead to MANY opportunities for S. Jones. Especially with the screen game they do with J. Norwood coming back from injury and continuing to use Snelling's receiving skills.
SS Bernard Pollard (HOU) is up there with the VERY top guys. He's got a good matchup week 13 and even if it was a bad matchup, Pollard is getting very close to being "matchup proof", just like Bryan Scott. He's putting up solid numbers every game he's started this year.
My DB PICKUP OF THE WEEK S R. Doughty (WAS) vs. Drew Brees Don't get me wrong, I would still use Scott & Pollard over him, but he deserves a pickup. His 9 solos week 12 vs. Philly was his second highest amount of solos in a game this year. He had 10 solos week 4. Very few safeties have the hitting instincts to put up such high numbers. He's also had 4 games of 6 solos or higher this year. The only reason his total numbers are not higher is Chris Horton was the starting SS the first part of the year before getting benched for Doughty and now Horton is out for the year with injury. Doughty vs. Brees has the potential to be a 7 -10 solos type of game. If C.C. Brown from those Giants can get those numbers vs. Brees, so can Doughty.
LBs (Linebackers)
LB C. Draft (BUF) is the new LB next to Poz for Buffalo. Draft was a very good LB back in the day and the more "rust" he knocks off, the better he is going to get. He's a very smart football player, which makes him a prime canditate for sacks, INTs & forced fumbles. Week 12 was his first "full start" and he got 5 solos, 2 assists, 1 pd and 1 INT. Think Witherspoon numbers.
LB Keith Brooking (DAL) has been incredibly consistent this year and he faces NYG week 13 in a huge division game. He's an emotional guy who really brings it for big games. You can already mark him down for around 7 solos 2 assists with the possibility for extras (like a sack). If those numbers beat your LB, plug him in.
LB D Levy (DET) vs. the Bengals week 13 is a great matchup. Cincy is running the ball more than 40 times a game and every NFL team runs vs. Detroit. That puts Levy in a nice position to put up high tackle numbers.
MY LB PICK UP OF THE WEEK is Demorrio Williams (KC) vs. Denver week 13. I've watched this guy put up higher tackle numbers than DJ Williams, Lofton & Mayo over the last 3 weeks. How much longer can you keep a guy on the waiver wire who's averaging more than 7 solos a week? He's been almost as consistent as Clint Session from Indy.
DLs (Defensive Line)
DL/LB David Bowens (CLE) has become a no brainer if he is a DL in your league. And Calvin Pace (NYJ) fits that same category of DL/LB who gets Buffalo week 13. He has a fantastic shot at having a 2 sack game.
NON Defensive End Casey Hampton (PIT) vs. OAK week 13. I've been asked to list at least 1 "interior" linemen here for people who have to start defensive tackles. Interior linemen have been getting a good amount of sacks vs. Oakland this year and Hampton just picked up a sack week 12 last week vs. KC.
DL A. Ogunleye (CHI) vs. the Rams week 13. I feel pretty good about him getting a sack in this one. The side he is lined up on has had a sack on the Rams ever week for 8 weeks in a row. How's that for consistency? I'm sure I just jinxed everyone who uses him this week though. Let's put it this way. Seattle's D has had very few sacks this year and they got 4 vs. St. Louis week 12. If Ogunleye is not on your wire, use Alex Brown (CHI), you still got a great shot at a sack.
MY DL Pick up of the Week is Shaun Ellis (NYJ). vs. Buffalo week 13. Joey Porter got his 2.5 sacks, Starks got a half sack and even Jason Taylor got a half sack vs. Buffalo week 12. Each of those guys were predicted to get a sack so that gives some strong credit to predicting a sack for Shaun Ellis week 13. He had 8 tackles 2 sacks and 1 FF vs. New England week 11. Good player plus good matchup, equals very good chances.
SPECIAL NEW DL PICKUP OF THE WEEK is Trevor Scott (OAK) he is listed as a DE in almost all leagues, but starts this week at WLB for Oakland! Special thanks to reader & fellow IDP brother Steffen for bringing this to our attention. He turned in a 6 tackle 2 sack performance last week, but I'm not sure if that was from DE or partly from WLB also. Either way, he fits that David Bowens, Calvin Pace role. Go get him and feel good about putting him over almost any of the "guessing game" DLs out there like Ray Edwards or Wilkerson. I'd stop short of starting him over maybe a Trent Cole or Jarred Allen, but those guys are inconsistent too. This is a real find this late in the season and you want to move on this now! Thanks again Steffen!
AND ANOTHER SPECIAL NEW DL PICKUP OF THE WEEK is A. Spencer (DAL) Special thanks to reader & fellow IDP brother "Choices" for bringing this to our attention. A. Spencer is listed as a DL in Choices league. He is still an LB in my league, but if he is a DL in your league, go get him. As Choices has noticed, he has been racking up the tackles and he turned in a 6 tackle 2 sack performance last week just like Trevor Scott did. So this is another opportunity as he is facing the NYG running game week 13.
75 comments:
Great job with this site. We have been using IDP's for 3 years now and it is still really tough to pick good players. Are you connected with any sites that recommend pickups for offense?
Hey monk well randy starks helped me a lil so thanks now my other question for this week.. Randy starks or shaun ellis? and i have two DT but only use one in my league... i have haynesworth and kelly gregg shud i drop one of them for hampton? thanks so much
OK Monk...this is it for Mayo. I've been holding on to this cat all year, alot of it based on your love for the dude. BUT with no double digit games and the playoffs coming up..if he don't put on a show tonight I'm gonna have to dump him for Demorrio, LOL
Great blog!
Monk,
First of all, great column! What do you think about Orakpo's chances at a bounce back this week? Additionally, what do you think about Woodley's recent come back in defensive performance for the Stealers? Should I replace Orakpo with Woodley?
Hey Monk,
Why don't you put a thing up there to ask for paypal donations? I bet lots of your regular readers will pitch in a few $$. I know I would be!
While I have your ear, I'm still in a tough spot re: my last two DP flex spots for weeks 16 & 17. I tried to pick up Bryan Scott as per your advice, but he got scooped up off waivers before I could get to him. I kept Tanard Jackson as well, but he didn't do particularly well against ATL, so week 17 doesn't look too promising, plus I'm worried that New Orleans will be sitting Brees and running a bunch by week 16.
So I'm re-evaluating what I should do for those two weeks (I have secured a first round bye, so basically nothing matters until week 16) - a few choices:
- Stay with T Jackson? (NO, ATL)
- J Durant (NE, CLE))
- O Atogwe (ARI, SF)
- C Draft (ATL, IND)
- Demorrio Williams (CIN, DEN)
- EJ Henderson or C Greenway (CHI, NYG)
- Bethea (NYJ, BUF)
- Levy, Foote, Delmas (SF, CHI)
Thoughts welcome as always!
Monk,
First week of playoffs for my league! The importance factor just went up.
This is the line I'm starting, with my questions in parenthesis. Can you give me your opinions?
DT - C Avril vs Cin (Hampton?)
DT - K Gregg vs GB (Hampton?)
DE - R Edwards vs Ari (A Brown?)
DE - D Bowens vs SD
LB - Willis
LB - Cushing
LB - C Pace vs Buf
CB - R Barber vs Car (suggestions?)
CB - R Marshall vs TB (suggestions?)
S - Atogwe vs Chi (B Pollard?)
S - B Scott
BE - Weddle (O)
BE - A Brown
BE - Meriweather
BE - Briggs (pulled him bc of MRI)
BE - T Jackson (per your prior week's suggestion)
Thanks for any help.
Mike
Hey Monk,
No advice needed this week (so far), just wanted to throw out a big THANKS to you for your weekly efforts...I've been doing IDP for about a decade, and I'd have to say that your depth of fantasy analysis for defensive players is the best that I've seen on any site...especially for free! I've ultimately reshaped my defense thanks to your advice (added Lofton, DJ Williams, Bryan Scott, and Stylez G. thru the weeks) and my overall point production has gone up accordingly. Once I replace Shaun Rogers with Shaun Ellis the makeover will be complete.
SLEEPER ALERT: S.Rogers replacement (Ahtyba Rubin, who looked great in pre-season) will get a lot of opportunities to make plays simple because he won't be triple-teamed like Rogers constantly was.
Thanks Again Monk,
J Smoke
@ J Smoke. Thank you very much!
Well, you know how it is with guys like us. I'm still not sure whether I'm good or bad at this, depending on the week, but I do LOVE playing IDP and like talking about it equally as much.
Sometimes it helps people win and, unfortunately, sometimes it screws them up. Hopefully, in the end it helps more than screws up. (I think I just summed up parenting in a nut shell as well. Guess I'm feeling philosophical)
@ Bperiod
I'm there with you man. He skirted Monday night with an "barely" OK performance.
However, can you bench him vs. Miami week 13? I don't know if I can. Honestly, DJ Williams and Lofton have been almost as crappy as Mayo for me. And now Hawthorne came down to Earth a little bit this week too. I snuck by by 2 points this week with the luckiest hunch ever, by starting Chris Brown of the Texans over Rock Cartwright in my flex. My lucky Kevin Boss crashed badly week 12. Losing Owen Daniels has been a bigger loss to all 3 of my teams this year then the loss of Ronnie Brown. He gave such an advantage in that position.
Anyway, I personally am keeping Mayo on vs. Miami. Demorrio is tempting, but you know my man crush. Mayo practically one me my league last year. I might end up being faithful to a fault.
@ ceja.sergio
Yes, I would definitely do that after watching Woodley. He's on his way up and the Steelers still have alot to fight for. I think he'll be playing harder.
@ Todd
Thanks Todd, that's a really good idea. I never thought of that. Just a voluntary thing that's not too intrusive. I like that idea.
In my league, T. Jackson still averages more FF points than any of these guys, even after week 12's slow day at the office. Justin Durant is next in points after him.
And then it's Bethea, Foote, Atogwe, Delmas & EJ Williams and Demorrio Williams are tied in my league.
I see what you mean about T. Jackson and worrying about his schedule a little, but whether they sit Brees or not, the Saints have to pass. They will run a little more, but they have very injury prone backs and TON of WRs. I could see them trying to preserve their RBs a bit more, which means Aaron Stecker & maybe more Reggie Bush, who are both "screen" receivers. And Atlanta will have to pass to stay in the game vs. TB. TB is fairly equal to ATL this year. So I don't have any major issues with T. Jacksons matchups. That being said, I really like Atogwe's matchup and would have no problem going forward with him in those matchups. In fact, I think I might feel a little better with Atogwe then Jackson.(maybe, it's close)
I, personally, cannot going to the playoffs with J. Durant. He's so inconsistent with 12 tackles one week and 3 another. Rarely does he get any "extras".
At this point, I would feel good about T. Jackson & Atogwe.
We need to see what D. Williams does this weekend vs. Denver. That will be a nice preview for week 16. If he's solid, he'll be your rock going into the playoffs. If he has a week game, keep watching the play of Larry Foote & Draft & the other guys. Bethea can be a nice stud too.
I just think you roll with a pro-bowler like Atogwe who you know can get it done vs. good matchups and T. Jackson who's been getting it done very well most of the year.
@ Michael
Question:
DT - C Avril vs Cin (no, keep avril)
DT - K Gregg vs GB (no keep gregg)
DE - R Edwards vs Ari (no, keep edwards) Nice team, by the way
DE - D Bowens vs SD
LB - Willis
LB - Cushing
LB - C Pace vs Buf
CB - R Barber vs Car (keep barber vs. delhomme or whoever)
CB - R Marshall vs TB (suggestion would be T. Newman vs. Philly)
S - Atogwe vs Chi (B Pollard if you get points for tackles and assists. Atogwe has great shot at INT though and screen tackles on Forte. Very close, depends on your scoring.)
S - B Scott
BE - Weddle (O)
BE - A Brown
BE - Meriweather
BE - Briggs (pulled him bc of MRI)
BE - T Jackson (per your prior week's suggestion)
Good Luck! I can tell you know what you're doing with your team, so I think you'll do really well. You know the old rule. Don't make any "last minute" gut calls. Stick with the guys that will get the job done. Don't get fancy, in otherwords. You have that type of team. T. Jackson will come through. He's been too good all year not to. That's also why you're fine whether you go Atogwe or Pollard. It's close so you're all good.
@ Eli said...
I'd go shaun ellis this week.
No don't drop either of those 2 for Hampton. Haynesworth and kelly gregg are good.
@ Jonathan
fflibrarian.com can help decide on offensive guys. She has a ton of links with offensive pickup suggestions.
Hows Monk,
Thanks to you & Chris Johnston I'm nearly a cert 4 the playoffs (10-2)so I need to get Defensive guys for week 16/17.We can only start 2DBs & 2 Dls.I have Woodson,T Branch & B Scott as DBS should i drop(if so who) any of these for Atogwe whos on the waiver??
Also i have Elvis Dumervil & James Hall as Dls,presume i should stick with elvis 4 the playoffs but who should i replace Hall with??Ogunleye,ellis,docket,hali,ray edwards,schobel,hargrove,suggs & wilkerson are all on the waiver!!
Thanks if you can help
john
Hey Monk,
First thanks for all the advise this year! At FF seasons end ill be making a donation for all the help! The least I can do for taking time away from the family to blog all this good insight.
Now back to business!
Which 2 of these 3 DB'S do you recommend for this week.
Tyvon Branch
Bernard Pollard
Josh Wilson
Thanks Again!
Monk as always great stuff...
I have a chance to pickup only one of these free agents...
Marcus Stroud
Darnell Dockett
Robert Mathis
Will Smith
Tambi Hali
Kelly Gregg
Aaron Kampman
Shaun Ellis
Jason Taylor
Ogunleye
Or should I keep Aaron Schobel
Sorry for all the names I just respect your opinion on this Idp stuff
Thanks again for everything you do
Hey Monk,
Thanks for your help. I had no where else to turn for IDP advice before I found your blog. So, whether the points happen or not, at least I feel confident with my players. That said, would you substitute C Draft in for either B Scott or Pollard this week? Thanks
Hey Monk.
can you pick my 2 LB's for this week?
Cushing, DJ Williams, Demarrio Williams
thanks!
One last question for you re: weeks 16 and 17 - I just noticed C Pace (IND, CIN) is on waivers. For a defensive flex, would you put him in front of O Atogwe (SF, ARI) for those two weeks? Again I'm thinking, "of course - he's a LB!" but Pace has been inconsistent recently and like you mention, Atogwe looks like some good matchups then.
Hey Monk,
Lovin this blog! Marshall vs. NYJ definitely helped me get through last week :)
Now, do I keep him vs. TB this week? Or is Barber a better bet vs. Mat Moore? Josh Wilson's also available on the wire.
Cheers, Monk! Keep up the awesome work!
Hi Monk,
I am considering using Timmons rather than Hawthorne in this week. SF aren't too LB friendly and Oakland have been. Timmons is on a roll, maybe he'll give me a sack and 6-7 tackles? I also have Harris against Buffalo.
And what your expectations for J. Babineaux, the DB this week?
Thx for your time, I'll be hitting all the links on your site repeatedly :)
@ Anonymous
Your're Welcome!
Question:
Woodson,T Branch & B Scott as DBS should i drop(if so who) any of these for Atogwe whos on the waiver??
Answer:
I would contemplate Atogwe over Woodson if your league rewards something like 2 points for tackles and 1 point for assists. Atogwe should finish the season strong. But Woodson has that BIG game potential. Unfortunately, he also has that 3 tackle and nothing else potential too. As a rule, a safety is usually the safer route than an CB. But Woodson is no ordinary CB. I really like Woodson's schedule from now to the end of the year. Stay with Woodson. You've got 2 very solid guys in Branch & Scott and then Woodson is your homerun hitter who really has no ceiling.
Question:
Also i have Elvis Dumervil & James Hall as Dls,presume i should stick with elvis 4 the playoffs but who should i replace Hall with??
Ogunleye,ellis,docket,hali,ray edwards,schobel,hargrove,suggs & wilkerson are all on the waiver!!
ANSWER:
You're right. Stick with Dumervil, but if you have the ability to add and drop, each week, I'd play the matchups with those other guys. I think Suggs is still another week out, but I like him most. As you know, I love the Ellis & Ogunleye matchups, but I also like Edwards. The Wilkerson/Stylez White guessing game is exhausting. As I say, Ellis & Ogunleye are week 13 flavors, but if you have to pick 1 guy right now and that's it for the rest of the year, I think Edwards has the best supporting cast around him to succeed and is on the team that will see QBs dropping back to pass a little more than the other teams.
@ Sean
Thank you so much Sean!
Definitely Branch & Pollard out of those 3
@ Ash
QUESTION:
I have a chance to pickup only one of these free agents...
Answer:
If you mean for week 13 only, I'm putting it on the line for Shaun Ellis & Ogunleye (in that order) from the list below, but if you mean for the year and this is your last chance to pick one guy, I think you do stay Aaron Schobel because guys as good as him always seem to finish the season strong. The one thing these NFL vets know is the way they finish the season leaves a lasting impression on their coaches for their job security over the off season. Plus, they get a second wind because they can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Robert Mathis stands out to me as a guy like that and so does Ogunleye being a free agent and that big Gaines Adams trade that happened earlier in the season breathing down his neck.
Marcus Stroud
Darnell Dockett
Robert Mathis
Will Smith
Tambi Hali
Kelly Gregg
Aaron Kampman
Shaun Ellis
Jason Taylor
Ogunleye
@ Anonymous
That's great, I like to hear it!
QUESTION:
No, I don't trust Chris Draft that much yet. I would sooner use Demorrio over Pollard than Draft.
At this point though, I'd stick with Pollard and Scott until they give you reason to do otherwise.
QUESTION
can you pick my 2 LB's for this week?
Cushing, DJ Williams are your guys
@ Todd
I would go Atogwe over Pace. At least Atogwe is more consistent and I think he's going to have a big finish with his matchups.
@ Hash Brown
Thanks! My stomach's a little iffy today though and the though of a greesy McD's hash brown is not helping. haha
QUESTION:
Now, do I keep him vs. TB this week? Or is Barber a better bet vs. Mat Moore? Josh Wilson's also available on the wire.
ANSWER:
I can't explain it, but I've got this feeling about Barber this week. Again, it could just be the bubbling stomach, but I do like Barber. I got this funny feeling he's retiring soon and his team wants to see him keep adding sacks to his NFL record he's working towards. I think he gets another sack this week. So why not. It is Matt Moore after all and Barber will be covering Steve Smith. They have to throw his way.
@ Steffen
QUESTION:
I am considering using Timmons rather than Hawthorne in this week. SF aren't too LB friendly and Oakland have been. Timmons is on a roll, maybe he'll give me a sack and 6-7 tackles? I also have Harris against Buffalo.
ANSWER:
You might be on to something there. It's not a bad play. But it was only one off week for Hawthorne and there are very few LBs that can put up the numbers he has the potential to get. Word of warning here. Although SF has not been real good for LBs, they also don't usually play teams as easy as Seattle. So they can establish their running game easier on them then some of the other teams. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is PISSED OFF and they will show ABSOLUTELY no mercy to Oakland this week. They could score 50 points. I know Oakland runs no matter what, but they have to pass to stay in it. So Timmons will get sack opportunities (but so will Hawthorne), but his run opportunities might be limited. The thing that keeps me timid about Timmons is Harrison, Woodley, Farrior, Hampton, Keisell & Polamalu. There's just a lot of good players who can get the sack or tackle instead of him. With Hawthorne, there's Curry & Leroy Hill, but how often have they interfered with his box scores? My personal choice this week is Hawthorne in and Timmons on the bench, but I don't think it will be a vast difference in points so you should be fine either way.
QUESTION:
And what your expectations for J. Babineaux, the DB this week?
ANSWER:
Funny rule about Babineaux I've learned. NEVER use him after he has a big week. He never seems to do it twice in a row. I'd lay off because the matchup vs. SF is just OK. I really do think they'll get back to Singletary's run game this week, which he prefers to do.
Sleeper Alert:
Trevor Scott of Oakland, is the new weakside linebacker. He's a DL in my league and should be in most.
Go get him!
great blog monk!
who to use at lb this week: hawthorne or mayo? thanx!
Thanks for everything Monk. I donated what I could and I will again in the future. I need to pick one LB between cushing and hawthorne. Also I start B scott at DB...should I drop him to pick up B. Pollard? Thanks!
Jeff
@Steffen
Thanks from all of us Steffen! I'll get that word out right away!
Trevor Scott of Oakland, is the new weakside linebacker. He's a DL in my league and should be in most.
Go get him!
@ Anonymous
I think you gotta go Hawthorne still. It's not like he was a complete let down week 12. He still put up good numbers in my league with his sack and extras.
I think SF will run up the gut on Seattle.
Mayo vs. Miami is nice, but Mayo hasn't been all that nice.
@ Jeff
Thank you Jeff, I really appreciate it!
I still like B. Scott more than Pollard because Scott has been doing it consistently EVERY TIME he touches the field. Pollard, has a few average games mixed in this year.
Hi Monk!
I squeaked out a win this week -- but it was rough -- for some reason (listened to my brother-in-law!) I started calvin johnson at the very last minute instead of Miles Austin -- woops! Anyway -- I'm very happy to have B. Scott and Pollard now to choose from for my DB's (irony is I let go of Y. Bell and he had an uncaracteristicaly amazing game -- he crashed his ceiling, I guess!) And Branch didn't quite do it for my sister but I think she's gonna give him another shot!
So, I take it you think I should start B. SCOTT over POLLARD this week? In my league they ended up getting exactly 10 points each last week. (Our scoring = 1 pt. for every tackle, and every assist, 3 pts. for sacks, int., and recovered fumbles)
Here I am again -- which LB? Lofton, D.J. Williams or Fletcher? Fletcher had an amazing game (and on my bench!) That makes two great weeks in a row. (I really wish I could play more than one!) I honestly don't know which one to pick.
Thank you so much for all your help -- you're the best!
--Suzanne
Hey Monk!
Great advice as always, but should I pick up/start Jason Taylor or Trevor Scott, or should I stick with Orakpo?
Thanks,
Anthony
What do you think- Johnathan Joseph against Detroit, or Bryan Scott vs NYJ? I need this win to keep my playoff hopes alive.
Tackles= 1/ 0.5 pts, Sack= 3, Int= 4, FF= 4, F Rec= 4, Def TD= 7, Saf= 5, PD= 3.
As always...
THANKS!
Monk!
I have a few questions but I'll start with the biggest, as you can see from my defensive roster below, I currently am carrying 4 excellent linebackers for 3 LB roster spots while I am playing without 1 of my 2 DTs. My question is, which LB would you drop if you wanted to keep 3 guys for the rest of the year. The next question becomes who do I pick up at DT. Dwan Edwards and Trevor Scott are both available in my league as DTs! Should I pick up 1 or both?
At corner, Nick Harper is available now that he is healthy. Him vs. Jackson?
At safety, Whitner is available as is Pollard
Roster:
DT Jonathan Babineaux
DT EMPTY
DE Trent Cole
DE David Bowens
LB Curtis Lofton
LB Barrett Ruud
LB D. Hawthorne
CB Tyvon Branch
CB Tavaris Jackson
S Erik Coleman
S Daniel Manning
Any thoughts help would be appreciated. I only have 5 roster spots (very frustrating) so I can't carry multiple people and play match-ups. Thanks!
The 4th linebacker I have is K. Morrison. Sorry
Okay, I need help picking my 2nd DB slot. I am definitely starting D. Manning (vs. St. Louis) since that is probably the best DB matchup in the league for the last few weeks. The real choice, in my opinion/mind, is between 2 other of my DBs (i.e., R. Harper vs. Was or B. Scott vs. NYJ). I'm not sure if Scott will be an LB and/or a DB and it looks like the Jets will run T. Jones a lot for this game. Who would you start/choose for this week. I am just picking for this week's matchups. My league allows us to start 2 DLs, 2 DBs, and 2 DPs. The IDP points settings for my league are below.
Each Fumble Forced 1 Every Tackle Assist 0.2
Every Solo Tackle 0.5 Every 1 Total Tackle 0.5
Each Tackle for Loss 1 Passes Defensed 0.5
Each Sack 1 Each Interception 2
I also noticed your new special DL pickup suggestion for the week. While he is available, I also noticed that A. Spencer (vs. NYG), who has been really racking up points and tackles the last 3 weeks, is available. Which one would you start/choose this week if you only went with one of them. My league is pretty slow in waiver pickups even though lineup changes are unlimited.
Lastly, I need D/ST advice for this week. My league pretty much allowed all possible settings including penalties (e.g., points against points AND yards allowed, everything under the sun, etc.). Here are my choices for D/ST: 49ers vs. Sea, Bills vs. NYJ, or Packers vs. Bal
Which would you go with? The espn projections, which I don't always agree with, are the same for the 49ers & Bills and one point less for the packers.
Thanks for all of your help in the past! Your blog is great!
@ Jack
Question:
What do you think- Johnathan Joseph against Detroit, or Bryan Scott vs NYJ? I need this win to keep my playoff hopes alive.
Tackles= 1/ 0.5 pts, Sack= 3, Int= 4, FF= 4, F Rec= 4, Def TD= 7, Saf= 5, PD= 3.
Answer:
You know my Bryan Scott love. The guy has been nothing but money every game he's in. You have to go Scott there.
QUESTION:
I have a few questions but I'll start with the biggest, as you can see from my defensive roster below, I currently am carrying 4 excellent linebackers for 3 LB roster spots while I am playing without 1 of my 2 DTs. My question is, which LB would you drop if you wanted to keep 3 guys for the rest of the year. The next question becomes who do I pick up at DT. Dwan Edwards and Trevor Scott are both available in my league as DTs! Should I pick up 1 or both?
Answer:
The roster you provided below only shows 3 LBs. I'm not seeing your 4th so let me know who the 4th is.
My only small concern with Trevor Scott is how long will he have this role? It might just be a one week special and their just giving him a look to see what they have for next year. That being said, I think Trevor Scott is a better option than Dwan Edwards either way. So Trevor Scott should be your guy. You gotta risk it to get that bisket and you don't see opportunities like Trevor Scott pop up often. You have to be happier with the consistency of David Bowens a Dwan Edwards. This is close to a similar situation. Only Bowens plays ILB and Scott is at WLB so a few less opportunities, but still good to be an LB on a crappy team that everyone runs on.
--------------
QUESTION
At corner, Nick Harper is available now that he is healthy. Him vs. Jackson?
Answer:
Yes, I think Nick Harper is primed and ready. I would go Harper over Jackson moving forward.
Question:
At safety, Whitner is available as is Pollard
Answer:
Tough, tough question. I think you go Pollard only because I don't know how many teams Buffalo will get a big lead on and force the other team to pass. Houston has that potential. It's closer than I thought it would be, but I'd go Pollard if your league rewards decently for tackles. If not, then Whitner.
Roster:
DT Jonathan Babineaux
DT EMPTY
DE Trent Cole
DE David Bowens
LB Curtis Lofton
LB Barrett Ruud
LB D. Hawthorne
CB Tyvon Branch
CB Tavaris Jackson
S Erik Coleman
S Daniel Manning
Any thoughts help would be appreciated. I only have 5 roster spots (very frustrating) so I can't carry multiple people and play match-ups. Thanks!
@ J
So it' Morrison, LB Curtis Lofton
LB Barrett Ruud, LB D. Hawthorne
I know Lofton hasn't been huge, but he history this year speaks for itself. Too valuable to drop. Hawthorne has WAY too much big points potential to drop.
Between Morrison & Ruud, it's Ruud. He's been on a hot streak the last couple games and when you compare their numbers-
Morrison: 89 2FF no sacks no INTs & he's only knocked down 1 ball all year plus he's put up 2 solo and even 4 solo games.
Ruud: 97 tackles 1 FF and 1 INT & he's knocked down 5 balls.
It's still Ruud. Oakland is experimenting with the cast around Morrison and that can make things worse for him.
Thanks for the insight. My only remaining question is should I drop Coleman or Manning for Pollard?
Thanks again
@ Choices
QUESTION
Okay, I need help picking my 2nd DB slot. I am definitely starting D. Manning (vs. St. Louis) since that is probably the best DB matchup in the league for the last few weeks. The real choice, in my opinion/mind, is between 2 other of my DBs (i.e., R. Harper vs. Was or B. Scott vs. NYJ). I'm not sure if Scott will be an LB and/or a DB and it looks like the Jets will run T. Jones a lot for this game. Who would you start/choose for this week. I am just picking for this week's matchups. My league allows us to start 2 DLs, 2 DBs, and 2 DPs. The IDP points settings for my league are below.
Here's the thing with B. Scott. When he was at Safety, games 1-3, he averaged 9 tackles a game, 1 FF and 2 INTs. Last week, he also played Safety and recorded 10 total tackles. I'm even being nice and not even mentioning the 2 games when he played WLB and also finished with a total of 10 tackles a game and added a sack in there, a pass deflection and an FF.
Harper is an elite SS, but looking back, he has had games with 3 total tackles, 4 total tackles etc. Including Tampa Bay week 11, who I feel is slightly better, but very close to the Redskins with their gameplan. I'm not seeing the good matchup here. Even if NYJ runs it a ton, that's still a lot of tackle opportunities for Scott at SS and Dustin Keller is by far Sanchez's favorite target lately which is in Scott's territory. Both matchups are good, but here's final number to leave you with. Scott has 57 tackles, a sack, an INT and an FF in the 6 games he's played this year. Harper has 78, 1.5 sacks and 1 FF (no INTs) in the 11 games he's played. If Scott stayed on his pace and played all 11 games, he'd have 96 tackles right now. Not too far off from Patrick Willis who has played every game this year. So until I see Scott faulter, I'm keeping him in there. Even over Roman Harper.
QUESTION:
I also noticed your new special DL pickup suggestion for the week. While he is available, I also noticed that A. Spencer (vs. NYG), who has been really racking up points and tackles the last 3 weeks, is available. Which one would you start/choose this week if you only went with one of them. My league is pretty slow in waiver pickups even though lineup changes are unlimited.
Are you saying Spencer is one of those special DL guys your league? He's counted as an LB in mine. Absolutely, an OLB facing the Giants who counts as a DL and finished with 6 tackles and 2 sacks last week, go with him! I'll bring attention to him in the blog so people can look for him as a DL in their league. Thanks!
QUESTION:
Lastly, I need D/ST advice for this week. My league pretty much allowed all possible settings including penalties (e.g., points against points AND yards allowed, everything under the sun, etc.). Here are my choices for D/ST: 49ers vs. Sea, Bills vs. NYJ, or Packers vs. Bal
Answer:
Funny how things work out throughout the year. I had the 9ers and Bills as my sleeper D's in the beginning of the year and everyone had the Packers ranked so high.
I'd go Packers. Home game on MNF. Lot's of playmakers on the GB defense and their getting healthier. The other 2 teams are playing away games and that can make a difference on how fired up a D gets.
Thanks for all of your help in the past! Your blog is great!
@ J
QUESTION
Thanks for the insight. My only remaining question is should I drop Coleman or Manning for Pollard?
Answer:
Coleman has been pathetic lately I think you have to switch to Pollard, who's getting it done going into the playoffs.
@ John
QUESTION
Thx for advice all season, good stuff! My Q is what you think of Tanard Jackson with his matchup against Carolina this week - and how do you like him going forward, in the fantasy playoffs, how does he rank against the top ranked guys? Will do my xmas shopping on amazon through your link, so if ya don't get a commission raise hell!
ANSWER:
Thanks! I think I need to because I bought the baby's humidifier & a paper shredder for my mom through there and saw nothing. Hell shall be raised soon. haha
It's a good question with Jackson. I think I'd feel safer with B. Scott or Pollard at this point, of course that can all change if he proves us wrong with a big game. haha I think you have to like his matchup vs. Carolina. Matt Moore will probably be QB and the Carolina running game always seems to break it to the second level so he should see some tackle opportunities there. Mostly, Carolina and TB don't like each other so that's always a good sign for a hard hitting SS. Keep him in there and let's see what he does. Maybe Pollard & Scott have quiet weeks and T. Jackson goes OFF. We'll just have to see. What I do know is T. Jackson is a top 20 FF player. Not just DB, but out of ALL FFers in my league. He got there and I don't think a couple quiet games will keep him down long.
@ Suzanne
When I win or lose, it's always a "squeaker" in my league, but a win is a win, right!
Can you get Y Bell back?
Aw, bummer! And here I was happy on Thanksgiving that I told my friend Suzanne to start Miles Austin over Calvin Johnson. I did listen to my own advice and Antonio Bryant did just fine as my third wideout as well week 12. Started him over Kevin Walter.
QUESTION:
So, I take it you think I should start B. SCOTT over POLLARD this week? In my league they ended up getting exactly 10 points each last week. (Our scoring = 1 pt. for every tackle, and every assist, 3 pts. for sacks, int., and recovered fumbles)
Answer:
Yup, I'm still a Scott over Pollard guy only because Scott hasn't given any reason at all this year to not go with him. When he does, I'm sure I'll hear about it. haha But he's on my team too so I'll feel it like everyone else.
QUESTION:
Here I am again -- which LB? Lofton, D.J. Williams or Fletcher
ANSWER:
I'll make it easy on you. Don't play DJ. I don't like the direction he's going in and his KC matchup is not exciting at all. In 3 of his last 4 games, he's had 5 or less solo tackles, including 2 solo tackles last week. I'm benching him week 13. And with Lofton and Fletcher going instead, don't lose a wink of sleep over it.
@ Anthony
QUESTION
Great advice as always, but should I pick up/start Jason Taylor or Trevor Scott, or should I stick with Orakpo?
Answer
I would go Trevor Scott over Orakpo. Take the guaranteed points of a WLB facing the Giants running game over a guessing game of whether or not Orakpo will get a sack and at at least 3 tackles to make him worth your while. And then yell "thank you Steffen for the tip" because you got a sneaky good deal.
CORRECTION
I apologize, I mentioned to a couple of you that Trevor Scott is facing the Giants this week. He's not. He's facing the Steelers, which is still a great matchup.
Our other special DL of the week, brought to us by reader "Choices", A. Spencer from Dallas is facing the Giants. Both are pretty even in my book with Scott having a slight advantage because his D might be on the field more often that Spencer's D and Scott may see more running plays. I think Spencer has a better shot at a sack on Eli though.
Glad I could help contribute at all to your online IDP community, considering how much you've helped me. Yes, I will confirm that A. Spencer is currently listed as a DE in my league, as I'm sure he is in many other leagues that don't continuously update position status (e.g., Bowens, Pace, etc.). Him being an LB would explain his recent numbers, esp. if this change happened only a few weeks ago, since his stats early in the season are VERY different. You've convinced me, I am playing spencer for sure. THANKS!
Hi again, Monk--
You should still feel good about your Miles Austin recommendation because you were right! -- I was really mad at myself for not playing him -- I would've had a better Thanksgiving if I had! It really bummed me out. Its funny cuz I thought of you too, and that you might be feelin' good on how you steared me right! Tragic!
Anyway, I was wondering if you think I should get Bell back, because I can. I'm in the play-offs (yay!)-- starting next week. I can only always play ONE DB and ONE LB (much to my frustration!). So right now I've got Pollard and Scott -- should I drop either for Bell? Or maybe I could drop another player for Bell -- do you think I might want to play him over either of the others in the weeks to come?
But this brings me to my question about this week, which is that now I have to choose between Fletcher and Lofton. I'm taking your advice on benching D.J. -- but I still have to narrow it down to one player. Which one? (I WOULD sleep well if I could play them both!)
Thanks again Monk. I love -- and trust! -- your advice. (And I'm gonna do my best to do some shopping through your site...it's the least I can do!)
--Suzanne
Hi Suzanne
Sorry I didn't catch this before the game tonight. Hopefully you started Bryan Scott and don't have to worry about this now.
To answer you question, yes. You do want to get Bell back over Pollard. He's one of the kings of IDP and Pollard is good, but that call last week was based mostly on his Indy matchup. It's close, but I would feel better about having Bell and Scott for the playoffs.
Narrowing down to just one LB between Fletcher and Lofton this week. I'd go Lofton. He's playing Philly who Fletcher just put up 11 solo tackles against. Fletcher has NO, which isn't as good of a matchup for LBs this year. Of course, now that I said that, you know the opposite will happen so go Fletcher. (just kidding... sorta) Both guys will be solid, but I do feel a little better about Lofton's matchup. I'm starting Lofton so I'll be right there with you if he breaks down for some reason.
Good Luck and thank you so much for the support!
Hey Monk,
Great post as always, just a few questions:
First, which of the following safeties do I bench? Babineaux, Delmas, or Doughty. I know you rank Doughty high this week on account of his matchup against New Orleans.
And at Defensive End, do you recommend David Bowens or Will Smith. I know you like Bowens a lot, but Smith is a sack MACHINE!
Thanks again Monk!
Monk,
Got a quick question about how you're able to pull some of the numbers you do.
For instance, I've got S Pollard vs Bal on Monday night and for kicks I just want to see how many points on average Baltimore offense has given to the S position each game (or maybe just an average). How would I find that info? Is there a site or place you can recommend that compiles this data?
You seem to post a lot of info about that sort of stuff and I couldn't imagine you calculating that manually for each response you do!
Any advice would be helpful, thanks again.
Mike
@ Harry
Absolutely. Sorry, I guess that's one of the disadvantages me primarily concentrating on Waiver Wire. I don't talk about the best and most obvious in correlation.
Here's my personal mini list of week 13 top guys DLs:
Will Smith - NO at WAS
Trent Cole - PHI at ATL
Jared Allen - MIN at ARI
Trevor Scott - OAK at PIT
A. Spencer - DAL at NYG
Shaun Ellis - NYJ vs. BUF
Justin Tuck - NYG vs DAL
David Bowens - CLE vs. SD
Robert Mathis - IND vs TEN
@ Michael
Unfortunately it is manual, but it's not near as difficult as you might think. When guys stand out in the box scores, you see who they played. Then I use http://www.nfl.com/schedules and go back about 5 games and look at each game up to the current point a the season.
Unfortunately, Baltimore has changed their gameplan a bit and are not as friendly on SS as they were earlier in the season when it was obvious. The same with Green Bay. They are not allowing as many sacks. But Buffalo is a no brainer and so is Houston. You look back about 5 games and move forward and you see consistent sacks. This became an obvious trend for Arizona for LBs, but you have to watch closely for changes at RB or QB because that changes everything. Like the Cardinals completely changed their offensive scheme for Matt L. at QB. Just like Baltimore changes their use of McGahee & Rice so that SS trend also changed.
But there is no site that I know of that does stats like that. Maybe some subscription sites.
I guess a big part of it for me is I played football from 6 years old straight through college and then just a little arena ball. My dad was a coach for 40 years and was actually involved in consulting Bill Yoast from TC Williams during that tough time of segregation in Virginia. My Dad had already done it in Maryland with his team and just gave some friendly advice. He also played for Lee Tressel in High School and his Mentor High School team went undefeated the whole time he played and many years after (Lee Tressel is Ohio States Coach Jim Tressels late father) My Dad used to bounce Jim Tressel on his knee at practice.
So, a lot of it is just knowing football and all the schemes that exist out there and what offenses would try to do against those schemes. And then you compare that to the box scores of what has happened in the past and usually your prediction is close. Unfortunately DLs are another story because that is a one on one battle and sometimes it's as simple as the big guys didn't eat their Wheaties that day. A speed rusher vs. a big slow guy is easy to predict, but 0-lineman change so fast these days, it's hard to have enough time to get a read on a guy. If I had time to look at tape, I'd be much better than I am, but as it is I really only have time for about 3-4 hours on a Sunday to study and find some guys that stand out to tell you guys about. Lot's of diaper changing, dinners, bath times & doing side websites for clients kinda gets in the way.
Sorry I couldn't help more. If you find a calculation site, let me know, but even then you need to estimate in "human emotion" (guy facing his old team), home game/vs. away, changes in personel around a player, injuries, grass vs. turf and now we're getting more into predicting weather effects this time of year. I also notice "flu" is a new one this year. It messed up both K. Wimbley for a couple games and Ko Simpson felt like crap on gameday one time when I recommended him. Lots of factors.
You want to see something wacky today. Yahoo shows Bryan Scott got 6 solos 3 assists last night, but NFL.com has him at 3-3. WTF? I tried to watch it on NFL.com last night, but they interrupt so much, I'm not sure which is right now. I'm really hoping the 6 solos 3 assist is right. That sounds more like Scott #'s If not, and it's the 3-3, a lot of us are not off to a good start. I also switch to Dustin Keller over Kevin Boss because I thought he'd have big game vs. Buf. He got 1 catch for 5 yards. It's a bummer starting off the FF weekend like this. I really miss my Owen Daniels who I had on all 3 teams. Been struggling ever since.
Hey Monk! Thanks so much for all your help this year!
At LB this week, would you go with L. Fletcher or K. Morrison?
At DE, pick two: Trevor Scott, Juqua Parker, or Greg "Stylez" White?
Thanks again!
hey mike, love the blog! would you start trevor scott over jared allen this week? ive been burnt by allen before and i need this to get into the playoffs! too risky?
Hey Monk,
What do you think of Peppers for the ret of the year. He has not been doing much since injuring his hand. I have had Mathis and Edwards starting for the last couple of weeks.
Will he return to the JP from 6 weeks ago or do you think he will just be an average DE through the playoffs?
T. Scott is a DE in my league. Would he be worth picking up and dropping JP?
Hey Monk, awesome blog.
I want to pick up either Boley or Bowens for the the next 4 weeks. Maybe both.
Can't figure out who to drop.
Cooper
B.James
N.Barbett
J Durant
J.Mayo
E.Coleman
R.Doughty
Bryan Scott
Tkls 1 pt. Assists 1 pt. Scks 1 pt.
Hey Monk,
I have Pollard in my lineup right now. But, I have the option of replacing him with a LB if I want. Do you like Farrior or Laurinaitis this week much more than Pollard? Thanks very much for your advice.
Hells yes thanks for this column - I discovered the Trevor Scott play in my league and went hunting for more - and found this awesome blog just in time for the playoffs!
I'm in a 14 team league that starts 7 IDP - Here are my current angles: B.Scott, T.Scott and the best play all year - George Wilson as a WR.
@ Kizzy
QUESTION:
At LB this week, would you go with L. Fletcher or K. Morrison?
ANSWER:
Very, very close. This one could go either way. Pittsburgh will run Mendenhall very heavy so Morrison will get tons of opportunities. I don't know if Trevor Scott helps or hurts him. Any change like that makes me a little leary. But maybe it will increase Morrison's output.
Fletcher facing NO is a little iffy. But I thought Fletcher against Philly was iffy and he put up 11 solos.
I think you stay with hot hand, plain and simple. Morrison has been bad the last couple weeks and Fletcher has been on fire. For that simple reason, I'd go Fletcher. This is a bit like choosing between Mayo & Laurinitis. They are so similar. And although I like Mayo's matchup a little better, just like I like Morrison's matchup better, Laurinitis has been on fire and Mayo has been slow so I'd go Laurinitis this week in that example. Could go either way though so factor that into your decision.
QUESTION:
At DE, pick two: Trevor Scott, Juqua Parker, or Greg "Stylez" White?
Answer:
Trevor Scott & Stylez this week. Like that Matt Moore or Delhomme matchup to TB.
Schobel went nuts this Thur - is that a continuing trend?
@ Anonymous
QUESTION
hey mike, love the blog! would you start trevor scott over jared allen this week? ive been burnt by allen before and i need this to get into the playoffs! too risky?
ANSWER:
Thanks! They're very close. It depends on your other players. I'm going to go out on a limb and tell you to start Scott over Allen. And this is my reasoning. Ben is one of the most sacked QBs in the league & Scott should get one of those. Between that and a big dose of the run game, Scott should be guaranteed at least 4 tackles. Let's face it, we just never know that about a true DL. We do know that teams focus on J. Allen and gameplan how to stop him during the week. No one will be doing that for Trevor Scott. He's new to the position and has something to prove. This is WLB numbers from a "DL" position. Enjoy "the cheat" and use the advantage while you can.
@ James
QUESTION:
Hey Monk,
What do you think of Peppers for the ret of the year. He has not been doing much since injuring his hand. I have had Mathis and Edwards starting for the last couple of weeks.
Will he return to the JP from 6 weeks ago or do you think he will just be an average DE through the playoffs?
T. Scott is a DE in my league. Would he be worth picking up and dropping JP?
Answer:
Yes, T. Scott is worth getting over JP and start him tomorrow over Edwards.
@jeff
QUESTION:
Hey Monk, awesome blog.
I want to pick up either Boley or Bowens for the the next 4 weeks. Maybe both.
Can't figure out who to drop.
Cooper
B.James
N.Barbett
J Durant
J.Mayo
E.Coleman
R.Doughty
Bryan Scott
Tkls 1 pt. Assists 1 pt. Scks 1 pt.
I'd drop B. James for Boley at LB. James is too risky for the playoffs. You just can't trust what he's going to do from week to week. I sorta feel that way about Cooper too, but more so about James. Bowens is GREAT as a DL, but a bit risky as an LB after watching him for the last few weeks. I'd trust Demorrio Williams more than Bowens for consistent #'s at LB.
@ Anonymous
QUESTION
I have Pollard in my lineup right now. But, I have the option of replacing him with a LB if I want. Do you like Farrior or Laurinaitis this week much more than Pollard? Thanks very much for your advice.
ANSWER:
Laurinaitis has been on fire. You have to go with him at this point.
@ marmstrong
QUESTION
Hells yes thanks for this column - I discovered the Trevor Scott play in my league and went hunting for more - and found this awesome blog just in time for the playoffs!
I'm in a 14 team league that starts 7 IDP - Here are my current angles: B.Scott, T.Scott and the best play all year - George Wilson as a WR.
ANSWER
QUESTION
Schobel went nuts this Thur - is that a continuing trend?
ANSWER
I can say YES for week 14 because they face KC, which is a fantastic DE matchup. A big part of his big night was backup QB Clemmons came in and played like a scared mouse. That's when Kelsay, Schobel and gang started going off. But week 15 is NE & Brady, who surprisingly has been sacked more lately than usual, so that's a maybe. But for now, he's a great play. Both him & Kelsay are.
Hey Monk - thanks for the replies - one more:
Chad Greenway is having a pretty average season - which is to say he lags just a bit behind EJ Henderson but still has some great weeks. He usually seems to drop back into coverage a lot of times, so if the Vikes play a poor Offense, then his numbers take a hit. The Vikes have played some pretty lame O's in recent weeks, and I don't see that trend changing much. To me, it seems like Greenway's avg #'s will continue. Is he worth a spot on the roster for the playoff run, or is there better talent out there?
I can only old 4 LBs, and my starters are D.Harris, K.Dansby, and J.Beason.
Thanks!
@ marmstrong
QUESTION
Chad Greenway is having a pretty average season - which is to say he lags just a bit behind EJ Henderson but still has some great weeks. He usually seems to drop back into coverage a lot of times, so if the Vikes play a poor Offense, then his numbers take a hit. The Vikes have played some pretty lame O's in recent weeks, and I don't see that trend changing much. To me, it seems like Greenway's avg #'s will continue. Is he worth a spot on the roster for the playoff run, or is there better talent out there?
I can only old 4 LBs, and my starters are D.Harris, K.Dansby, and J.Beason.
ANSWER:
Can you list 3 or 4 of the top rated LBs on your waiver so we can look ahead at their schedule for any trends. You're right, Greenway isn't bad, but there may be room to improve. Maybe Boley from NYG or Demorrio Williams, we'll need to see who you can pick up and if you can only pick up 1 guy for the rest of the year or if you can toggle from week to week playing the matchups with your 4th LB
Here they are - slim picking but you might see something I don't:
Q.Black
A.Curry
Deandre Levy
R.McIntosh
S.Nicholas
@ marmstrong
In that case, stay with Greenway
Levy is the only other guy I'd consider seriously, but Ernie Sims lingers so he could be benched for him at any time. The other guys are too hit or miss. I'd feel best about Greeway for the playoffs than any of those guys you listed.
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