Week 16 IDP Waiver Wire Pickups - NFL Fantasy Football 2011

Championship Pickups

Linebackers
(Some LBs to point out who were on this list before and should no longer be on your Waiver Wire are NaVorro Bowman, Rolando McClain, Ray Maualuga, Donald Butler, Daryl Smith, Paris Lenon, Thomas Howard, Colin McCarthy, Perry Riley, Jordan Senn, Larry Grant (if Patrick Willis is out again), D.J. Smith (as long as Desmond Bishop is out). If they are still on your Wire, pick up those guys before anyone listed below)

Jordan Senn (LB, Car) – READ THIS BEFORE YOU PICK HIM UP.  I already had him listed in bold above from previous weeks, but I have him listed here again to give some advice based on him outscoring every linebacker in the league in Week Fifteen and regarding his next matchup.  First, in case you didn’t see his numbers, he put up 12 solos, 2 assists, 1 pass deflection and 1 INT vs. the Houston Texans.  The first thing you need to know about this is, although he’s been kinda solid, these numbers are very uncharacteristic of his play. The second thing to do is look at his position and if the guy from his position did it in a previous week. The answer is YES. Thomas Howard of he Bengals also had an uncharacteristic 12 tackles with 9 of them being solo vs. the Texans in Week Fourteen. Lastly, you need to know that Senn’s next matchup is really poor vs. the Bucanneers, who only allowed a stud like Sean Lee to get 2 solos. All that being said, guess who plays the Texans next. (see Ernie Sims in bold below**)

** Ernie Sims or Phillip Wheeler (LB, Ind) – Sims played in place of the injured Wheeler in Week Fifteen and put up 8 solos and 7 assists. Awesome IDP numbers! In fact, depending on your scoring system, that ties Jordan Senn’s point total in some leagues. This was a home game for the Colts and they faced the Titans in this matchup. They face the Texans in Indianapolis next. What is important about it being a home game is the Colts stat keepers are completely insane (in a really good way for IDP). Case in point, they handed out 44 assists to the Colts defense in Week Fifteen. I’m going to say that number again: 44.  In total, 17 guys got playing time on defense. To give a comparison to another game, the St. Louis Rams played at home vs. the Bengals and 18 guys were given credit for defensive playing time. A total of 9 assists were recorded for the Ram players. In fact, as I looked around the league, 10 assists appears to be the norm and the total number of tackles in a game ranges from 50 to 65 at the highest. However, the Colts total tackle number was 83 because of the amount of assists that the stat keepers tack on. What a huge advantage this is for IDP guys who start Indianapolis defensive guys when the Colts play at home! So let’s add all this up: Bengal’s Thomas Howard put up his best tackling effort of the season vs. the Texans in Week Fourteen. Then Jordan Senn does the same vs. the Texans in Week Fifteen. Now, either Ernie Sims or Phillip Wheeler (watch injury report about Wheeler’s foot) will play the Texans in Week Sixteen. Only instead of playing them “straight up”, they also get the advantage of the home game stat keepers. There is definitely a lot of risk here, especially since this is your championship game, but if your opponent has Pat Angerer, this may be the only strategy to outscore Angerer, who will have a HUGE game.

Kavell Connor (LB, Ind) – As a continuation of everything I just said about Sims and Wheeler, Connor is the sure bet to play out of all the outside linebacker for the Colts and his numbers will also be bumped up by both the Texan’s matchup and the “hometown” stat keepers. Some realistic numbers for Connor are 4 solos and 6 assists. If that seems more solid then the production you’ve been getting out of your flex IDP spot or one of your LBs, then I think he’s worth the chance.

K.J. Wright (LB, Sea) – Wright gets San Francisco in Week Sixteen, who has been very  vulnerable to sacks up the middle by blitzing LBs. Wright has proven to be an excellent blitzer picking up sacks in the last two games he’s played. He should get decent tackle numbers in this matchup, but if you get 4 or more points for sacks in your league, he’s especially worth a long look to fill in your final LB slot for your championship game.


Defensive Linemen
(Some DLs to point out who were on this before and should no longer be on your Waiver Wire are Kyle Vanden Bosch, Jabaal Sheard, Ahtyba Rubin, Andre Carter(injured), Aldon Smith, Jeremy Mincey, Isreal Idonije, Chris Long, DT Phillip Taylor, DT Antonio Garay, DT Geno Atkins, DT Henry Melton, DT Jurrell Casey, DT Vince Wilfork, DT Linval Joseph, DE Robert Quinn. If they are still on your Wire, pick up those guys before anyone listed below)

Desmond Bryant (DT, Oak) – He was on the list last week and did not have a good Week Fifteen vs. Detroit. So what gives me the nerve to list him again?  Besides the fact that he had a sack in each of his last two games, prior to Detroit and the “almost” proven fantasy theory that when you recommend a guy one week and he completely bombs, he inevitably puts up a great performance the following week, he’s facing their division rival, the Chiefs. And this is not just a division thing, but there is a long-standing hate between the Chiefs and the Raiders that goes back years and years. Defensive tackles are such a crapshoot, I like his chances more than many. For instance, I’ve owned Ndamukong Suh this year and learned that he is all hype because he’s done literally nothing for me. Desmond Bryant’s numbers are better than Suh’s this year.

Mark Anderson (DE, NE) – Andre Carter blew out his knee and will be out for a while. Anderson stepped up and took his place in Week Fifteen with 2 sacks. His next matchup is in Foxboro vs. Miami. I like his chances of picking up another sack.

Phillip Hunt (DE/LB, Phi) Not only did Hunt get a sack for the second game in a row, but he also picked up 5 solos. If he is listed as a DE in your league, I’d take a long look at him as your DE2 against the Dallas Cowboys in Week Sixteen. He’s an exciting young player.

Chris Kelsay (DE, Buf) – The prediction in last Friday’s IDP Preview was dead on that Kelsay would be the one to have the big game vs. Miami based on previous games. His sack, 5 solos and 2 assists were exactly what the doctor ordered. He gets the Broncos next, who know they can run the ball on Buffalo so Kelsay should see a ton of tackle opportunities. If he picks up a “scrambling” sack on Tebow as well, that’s a bonus.


Defensive Backs
(Some DBs to point out who were on this list before and should no longer be on your Waiver Wire are Morgan Burnett, Kam Chancellor, Dashon Goldson, Jon McGraw, Eric Smith, Sean Jones, George Wilson, Reggie Nelson, Amari Spievey, Charles Godfrey, Charlie Peprah, Tanard Jackson, Ryan Clark, Lardarius Webb (watch injury), Craig Steltz (if Major Wright is out), Glover Quin (as a CB). If they are still on your wire, pick up those guys before anyone listed below.)

Jacob Lacey (CB, Ind) – If you missed the Lacey recommendation on here last week, then listen carefully this week. His 8 solos, 3 pass deflections and an assist vs. Baltimore in Week Fourteen was impressive, but to follow it up with an INT for a TD, 12 total tackles and 2 pass deflections in Week Fifteen is INCREDIBLE!  You must find a way to get this guy on your team as either your starting CB or he’s the perfect CB2. They get Houston next and if you missed what I said about the Indianapolis stat keepers, read the linebacker section above.

Chris Rucker (CB, Ind) – This new Colts corner will be picked on plenty and thanks to the stat keepers in Indianapolis, it all adds up to easy points as your CB2.

Ashton Youboty (CB, Jac) – He’s coming off a substantial tackle day vs. Atlanta, where he racked up 7 solos and a pass deflection.  Tennessee will also throw the ball on them as they proved against the Colts in Week Fifteen, where the Indianapolis cornerbacks had very high tackle numbers as they are both listed above as recommendations. This is Youboty’s third solid game and makes him a strong consideration as a CB2.

Reshad Jones (S, Mia) – An INT, 5 solos and a pass deflection in Week Fifteen is not the only reason that I’m recommending him. He faces the Patriots next where you automatically bump up all safeties at least 3 more tackles than their average. That would put Jones at 6 solos with the upside of more, including a couple extra pass deflections.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Monk, great site. My league scores 2 points per solo and 1 per assist; 5 for a sack and interception. Would you start any of the Indianapolis linebackers (excluding Anger)over chad greenway or paul poslowski?

Michael Monk said...

I would not start over either. I start them only if you've been playing guys like Larry grant, dj smith, Paris lenon, brooks reed. This is an upside play if you don't have the usual solid studs like the two guys you already have. My lranking of all idps will be posted tomorrow night in this comment area

Anonymous said...

What can you recommend for a first year fantasy football owner, who picked up a team in a Dynasty 16 team league with 18-IDP/12-OFF roster ratio and heavy on the IDP scoring.. i.e. 5-sacks,INT,FF,etc?

Michael Monk said...

Navorro Bowman - SF at SEA

Colin McCarthy - TEN vs JAX

DQwell Jackson - CLE at BAL

Jerod Mayo - NE vs MIA

Chad Greenway - MIN at WAS

David Hawthorne - SEA vs SF

Pat Angerer - IND vs HOU

Michael Boley - NYG at NYJ

London Fletcher - WAS vs MIN

Stephen Tulloch - DET vs SD

Terrell Suggs - BAL vs CLE

Daryl Washington - ARI at CIN

Ray Lewis - BAL vs CLE

Derrick Johnson - KC vs OAK

Nick Barnett - BUF vs DEN

James Laurinaitis - STL at PIT

D.J. Williams - DEN at BUF

Sean Lee - DAL vs PHI

DeAndre Levy - DET vs SD

Rolando McClain - OAK at KC

E.J. Henderson - MIN at WAS

Curtis Lofton - ATL at NO

Rob Ninkovich - NE vs MIA

Sean Weatherspoon - ATL at NO

Larry Grant - SF at SEA

Paul Posluszny - JAX at TEN

D.J. Smith - GB vs CHI

Clay Matthews - GB vs CHI

James Anderson - CAR vs TB

Brian Urlacher - CHI at GB

James Harrison - PIT vs STL

Calvin Pace - NYJ vs NYG

Aldon Smith - SF at SEA

Jason Pierre-Paul - NYG at NYJ

Mason Foster - TB at CAR

David Harris - NYJ vs NYG

Thomas Howard - CIN vs ARI

Lamarr Woodley - PIT vs STL

Jason Babin - PHI at DAL

Perry Riley - WAS vs MIN

Rey Maualuga - CIN vs ARI

Lance Briggs - CHI at GB

Kelvin Sheppard - BUF vs DEN

Jonathan Vilma - NO vs ATL

DeMarcus Ware - DAL vs PHI

Ernie Sims - IND vs HOU

Trent Cole - PHI at DAL

Karlos Dansby - MIA at NE

Paris Lenon - ARI at CIN

Roman Harper - NO vs ATL

A.J. Hawk - GB vs CHI

Von Miller - DEN at BUF

George Wilson - BUF vs DEN

Haloti Ngata - BAL vs CLE

Brian Cushing - HOU at IND

Takeo Spikes - SD at DET

Justin Tuck - NYG at NYJ

Jo-Lonn Dunbar - NO vs ATL

Leroy Hill - SEA vs SF

Darian Stewart - STL at PIT

Lawrence Timmons - PIT vs STL

Tamba Hali - KC vs OAK

Kam Chancellor - SEA vs SF

Quintin Mikell - STL at PIT

Daryl Smith - JAX at TEN

Amari Spievey - DET vs SD

Antoine Bethea - IND vs HOU

Connor Barwin - HOU at IND

Kevin Burnett - MIA at NE

Chris Long - STL at PIT

Chris Gocong - CLE at BAL

Jared Allen - MIN at WAS

Cliff Avril - DET vs SD

Earl Thomas - SEA vs SF

Brooks Reed - HOU at IND

Adrian Clayborn - TB at CAR

Jairus Byrd - BUF vs DEN

J.J. Watt - HOU at IND

Charles Woodson - GB vs CHI

Chris Chamberlain - STL at PIT

Tyvon Branch - OAK at KC

Antrel Rolle - NYG at NYJ

E.J. Biggers - TB at CAR

William Moore - ATL at NO

K.J. Wright - SEA vs SF

Chris Clemons - SEA vs SF

Jeremy Mincey - JAX at TEN

Brandon Flowers - KC vs OAK

Kurt Coleman - PHI at DAL

Ronde Barber - TB at CAR

Malcolm Jenkins - NO vs ATL

DeAngelo Hall - WAS vs MIN

Bernard Pollard - BAL vs CLE

Elvis Dumervil - DEN at BUF

Donte Whitner - SF at SEA

Yeremiah Bell - MIA at NE

Justin Smith - SF at SEA

Will Smith - NO vs ATL

Donald Butler - SD at DET

Eric Weddle - SD at DET

Anthony Spencer - DAL vs PHI

Brian Orakpo - WAS vs MIN

Mark Anderson - NE vs MIA

Kyle Vanden Bosch - DET vs SD

Geno Atkins - CIN vs ARI

Eric Smith - NYJ vs NYG

Brandon Deaderick - NE vs MIA

Tramon Williams - GB vs CHI

James Ihedigbo - NE vs MIA

Kerry Rhodes - ARI at CIN

Dashon Goldson - SF at SEA

Michael Monk said...

Richard Marshall - ARI at CIN

Eric Wright - DET vs SD

Kenny Phillips - NYG at NYJ

Erin Henderson - MIN at WAS

Tim Jennings - CHI at GB

Jordan Senn - CAR vs TB

Ryan Kerrigan - WAS vs MIN

John Abraham - ATL at NO

Jabaal Sheard - CLE at BAL

Shaun Phillips - SD at DET

Christopher Owens - ATL at NO

Quentin Jammer - SD at DET

Chris Harris - DEN at BUF

Desmond Bryant - OAK at KC

Sean Jones - TB at CAR

Steve Gregory - SD at DET

Greg Hardy - CAR vs TB

Julius Peppers - CHI at GB

Quinton Carter - DEN at BUF

Kyle Arrington - NE vs MIA

Troy Polamalu - PIT vs STL

Charles Tillman - CHI at GB

Reed Doughty - WAS vs MIN

Craig Steltz - CHI at GB

Michael Johnson - CIN vs ARI

Charles Johnson - CAR vs TB

James Farrior - PIT vs STL

Jacob Lacey - IND vs HOU

Jamarca Sanford - MIN at WAS

Jameel McClain - BAL vs CLE

Geno Hayes - TB at CAR

Lito Sheppard - OAK at KC

Nate Clements - CIN vs ARI

Orlando Scandrick - DAL vs PHI

Morgan Burnett - GB vs CHI

Dave Ball - TEN vs JAX

Wesley Woodyard - DEN at BUF

Darrelle Revis - NYJ vs NYG

Devin McCourty - NE vs MIA

Adrian Wilson - ARI at CIN

Dawan Landry - JAX at TEN

Dan Connor - CAR vs TB

Brandon Meriweather - CHI at GB

Tanard Jackson - TB at CAR

Robert Quinn - STL at PIT

Raheem Brock - SEA vs SF

Joe Haden - CLE at BAL

Patrick Peterson - ARI at CIN

Vontae Davis - MIA at NE

Ashton Youboty - BUF vs DEN

Danieal Manning - HOU at IND

Matt Giordano - OAK at KC

Casey Matthews - PHI at DAL

Michael Griffin - TEN vs JAX

Tracy Porter - NO vs ATL

Jamar Chaney - PHI at DAL

Quincy Black - TB at CAR

Antwan Barnes - SD at DET

Justin Houston - KC vs OAK

Kamerion Wimbley - OAK at KC

Antonio Cromartie - NYJ vs NYG

Terence Newman - DAL vs PHI

Cary Williams - BAL vs CLE

Jabari Greer - NO vs ATL

Jason McCourty - TEN vs JAX

Stanford Routt - OAK at KC

Robert Mathis - IND vs HOU

Ed Reed - BAL vs CLE

Charlie Peprah - GB vs CHI

Reggie Nelson - CIN vs ARI

Bart Scott - NYJ vs NYG

Ryan Clark - PIT vs STL

Jordan Babineaux - TEN vs JAX

Scott Shanle - NO vs ATL

Chase Blackburn - NYG at NYJ

Aaron Williams - BUF vs DEN

Kavell Conner - IND vs HOU

Tommy Kelly - OAK at KC

Brian Robison - MIN at WAS

Israel Idonije - CHI at GB

Sam Acho - ARI at CIN

Mathias Kiwanuka - NYG at NYJ

Jason Jones - TEN vs JAX

Calais Campbell - ARI at CIN

Chris Rucker - IND vs HOU

Thomas DeCoud - ATL at NO

Mike Adams - CLE at BAL

Gerald Sensabaugh - DAL vs PHI

Antoine Cason - SD at DET

i like stuff said...

Thx Monk! I barely squeaked by last week because of you!

Anonymous said...

Hey Monk, I have been to this site for 5 years and this is the firt time I have noticed your rankings...wow.

It appears that Desmond Bishop practiced yesterday and should be on pace to start on Saturday. If he plays would you start him over Paul Poz or Chad Greenway?

Michael Monk said...

That is difficult. I'd be very leary of this as GB cannot afford to get him hurt so rep should be limited. You are set with 2 great lbs so starting bishop is not worth the risk.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Monk, Love the website and normally I do not ask for advice, but since its the Superbowl in my league, I feel your advice could tremendously help me win my league. The scoring setup rewards big plays, so out of this group group of DL: Cliff Avril vs SD, Connor Barwin vs IND, Jabaal Sheard vs BAL, Mark Anderson vs MIA, or Calais Campbell vs CIN; Which one do you think, based on his matchup, will be the best performer in week 16?

Michael Monk said...

if connor barwin is a dl in your league he's a no brainer

Anonymous said...

I'm planning for this week *and* next - I got your rankings for this week (thx much!) who would you like better next week - C McCarthy, Desmond Bishop (if healthy), Poz, or David Hawthorne? Or is there a little known guy who will be a top 3 next week?

Anonymous said...

Hey Monk,

I'm back in the Playoffs only playing for 3rd this year...won it last year with help from you... thanks...I noticed this year you pretty much just put up your rankings instead of answering individual questions, and I completely understand why!! You get guys throwing out some seriously vague questions. I was wondering what type of scoring you use for your rankings and also....why not put the DB's seperate from the LB's? It's just weird to see Kam Chancelor next to Tamba Hali...just an idea..Happy Holiday's great pics of the Family, and thanks for all that you do.

Will