2010 IDP NFL Fantasy Football Draft Rankings & Strategy

The following IDP draft strategy & rankings all depends on your scoring system for points per tackles vs. INTs vs. assists vs. knock downs etc.

My league is tackle heavy so I tend to lean toward tackle heavy safeties, corners and D-linemen.  Either way, the LBs, DBs & DL rankings you'll find in the links below and on the right side of the site will get your season jump-started in the right direction no matter what scoring system you use.

Please keep in mind that both I and this blog concentrate primarily on “waiver wire pick ups.”  Drafting defensive guys is the least stressful part of my draft because I know well we can all do by picking up waiver wire guys with good matchups from week to week. So I have that strategy in the back of my mind while drafting my offensive players. I get as many offensive players & sleepers as possible with the knowledge that I will be able to pick up defensive guys like a “David Hawthorne” or a “Bryan Scott” off waivers as the season rolls on.

There is only one exception to this rule and that is if your league requires a Defensive End (DE) position.  DE’s are very slim pickins’. My strategy is to draft them before you take any other defensive player. In fact, I personally feel that there are only 2 actual DEs that I would want on my team this year: Jared Allen & Trent Cole. Obviously there are other strong potentials like Julius Peppers, Justin Tuck & Mario Williams.  I like Will Smith & Ray Edwards also, but DEs are such a crapshoot as we all found out last year.  Quite honestly, if you miss out on any of those guys (and please do not reach for Peppers, Tuck, Williams, Smith or Edwards) then I’d just wait a few more rounds at that position and stock up on an awesome Safety like Bernard Pollard or a sweet core of LBs like P Willis, Poz or Laurinaitis. (remember no Thomas Davis in Carolina this year -ACL)

The good news is many of us found loopholes in our leagues where LBs were listed as DEs.  We all found that this is the way to go. It’s such a shame about the injury to Elvis Dumervil who was counted as one of those special DE/LBs.  Surgery to his pectoral will cost him the rest of the season, but he would have been at the top of my list for this category.  If you’re really lucky, maybe a LaMarr Woodley is listed as a DE in your league due to where he lines up, but you’d have to be very lucky.

The important thing to keep in mind is I’m here all season so don’t stress in the draft if you don’t get an ALL Madden Defensive Team.  Personally, I would rather grab Clinton Portis in round 15 to add insurance to my running backs rather than MLB E.J. Henderson.  Especially when I’m pretty sure I can get a sleeper like the potential starter MLB Dan Connor for Carolina in one of the last rounds of the draft.  Because if you do the opposite strategy and you think you can grab a starting NFL RB in the last rounds, you’ll be sorely mistaken and left with a guy like Atlanta’s Snelling who will barely see the field and won’t help you much if one of your starting backs goes down.  And we all know the stiff competition to snag a good RB off waivers (like Jamal Charles last year).

But sneaky Defensive Players always popup on the wire.  TRUST IN THAT FACT when drafting.  Go with this slogan “Get Your Core, but Then No More” (at least not until much later in your draft).  In otherwords, let’s say you need 2 DEs, 2 DTs, 2 LBs, 2 S, & 2 CB and you have already drafted Trent Cole, Gregg Kelly, Karlos Dansby, Bernard Pollard & Charles Woodson. Those are your core guys and now you can concentrate back on offense again for awhile.   Don’t pass up Santana Moss as a backup WR to grab a second DT too early just to fill the position. DTs are practically a dime a dozen and nearly impossible to predict.  DE’s are extremely tough too.  Playing matchups from the waiver wire with DE’s, DT’s, & even CBs is the way to go.  If I were to reach for anyone with my second defensive picks, it would be Safeties & LBs first. Unless you see another elite DE, DT or CB at that Defensive position who got completely forgotten in your draft for some reason, don’t just grab a defensive person to fill a spot.. Laurence Maroney will end up being so much more valuable to your team in the long run than Randy Starks.  Because I can guarantee you that I will find a more valuable defensive guy off waivers than you can draft in the 17th round.  But I cannot guarantee you that I can find a viable NFL running back off waivers who can get you competitive points if your starting RB gets injured, has a bye or just ends up being a bust like so many RBs in the past. (taking Matt Forte in the first round killed me last year)

So remember to draft "Your Core, but No More" and don't stress if you see Willis & Beason go too early. Stick to your game plan and trust that there are a lot more big time defensive point scorers to be found on the waiver wire then there are offensive players. My personal drafting strategy is to have both of my starting RBs & both of my WRs before leaving round 4. Then I try to target a Schaub or Rivers, but it's hard to lay off Antonio Gates this year considering he'll be so busy.  But the TE position is the deepest in the whole draft and you will do absolutely fine to have Zach Miller or Heath Miller as your starter. Both can be had as last as rounds 16 or 17. So good luck to all and I look forward to another great season!


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11 comments:

Anonymous said...

good read Monk cant wait to read your weekly blogs and get your insight and slick finds to help me win a gain this yr. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

You are the man monk

Anonymous said...

Hey Monk,

In my league patrick willis will likely be drafted in the 3rd round and a major LB run will start in the 4th. Should I grab a LB with my 4th pick and 5th pick or snatch up an offensive player that will be available that normally wouldn't? (like a crabtree or jahvid best)

Michael Monk said...

I passed on Willis an let the run on LBs pass me by while I scooped up a great tight end in Antonio Gates, I also grabbed Wes Welker while guys were drafting Beason & Ruud & David Harris.

I still ended up with Ray Lewis and Lance Briggs as my core. Then I got a great deal on DQwell Jackson due to his injury and filed out my LBs with an upside pick in starting MLB Dan Connor from Carolina. Later, I grabbed Tanard Jackson & Kenny Phillips, but only after I grabbed Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw & Malcolm Floyd to better solidify my offense. Then, after my Kenny Phillips pick, I went back to offense and grabbed Julian Edelman. As I said, I truly believe one or two waiver wire IDP starters will explode out of nowhere within the first few weeks so I would fill out my offense if I were you, man. Have faith in the IDP waiver wire. Remember, undrafted Bryan Scott could have a starting gig in Buffalo and any moment, just like Tatupu could go down any minute and Hawthorne will be right back in the same stud position he was in last year.

Anonymous said...

Big question Monk? I am able to keep 4 IDP players each year and no more than 2 at each position. I plan to Keep Ray Lewis ,Barrett Ruud and Weddleof course but do I keep Mario Williams,Bryan Scott,or Danielle Manning as my third? standard tackle heavy league that award points for return yds?

Michael Monk said...

Keeping Mario Williams, Bryan Scott or Danieal Manning in a return heavy league has to be Daniel Manning.

Mario or practically any DE simply can't put up the numbers that a good safety who also add return yards can. And, of course, I love Bryan Scott, but at this point, he is not even close to a starter at any position. George Wilson & Whitner are ahead of him. Manning has not 100% nailed down the starting safety spot yet, but he will and he'll still be the return specialist so he's your best option out of the 3.

marmstrong said...

Great advice. This year I am going to reach for a team D - prob. Jets - as early as rd8-9. I'm hoping to start the run on team D's and then sit back and cherry pick remaining O players and LBs.

Michael Monk said...

@ Marmstrong

I HIGHLY recommend AGAINST your strategy of grabbing the Jets D first (especially as early as 8 or 9).

Did you know that in the last 6 years, only 2 projected top 10 FF defenses actually finished in the top ten? Only Chicago & Baltimore a few years back. There is absolutely no clear cut #1 fantasy defense this year.

I especially recommend against this in round 8 & 9. Some of the absolute best value in this years ADP are in 8 & 9. Not only in IDP where you should be grabbing your top DEs first because there are so few of them. (J. allen, T. Cole, J. Peppers, Tuck, Will Smith), but the offensive side of the ball is HUGE at that point.

Guys like Mike Wallace, Malcom Floyd, Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, Zack Miller, Derrick Mason, Jabar Gaffney, Bernard Barrian, Justin Forsett, Owen Daniels, Brett Farve, Vincent Jackson, Caddilac Williams.

I would wait on defense man. Just grab the Broncos or Redskins and you'll be fine. Trust me. THere is very little difference in FF points for team defense and impossible to guess. Just play the matchups each week and use whatever team plays Clev, St. Louis or Buf

KGJ said...

Monk,

Thanks again for running this site- Last year you really saved my bacon in my first league utilizing IDPs. Didn't win it, but your advice helped me make the playoffs.

I'm in a league this year that's utilizing IDP, and managed to amass an all-star IDP team without sacrificing my offensive players. There are still some good FA available. Our slots are D, DB, DL, LB, DT, DE, CB- D can be DL, LB, or DB. I currently have Poz in that flex spot, but Weddle is available. I have Willis and Pollard as my top LB/DB respectively.

So, my question is, should I pick up Weddle to start on a weekly basis, or stick with Poz? I wouldn't be dropping Poz, he'd just stay on the bench. Who should I expect more consistent production from, a DB or an LB? Scoring is tackle 1/0.5, sack/int 2, ff/fr 1.

Thanks!

Michael Monk said...

@KGJ
Definitely Poz over Weddle

Michael Monk said...

For the team that has:
Paul Posluszny,Demorrio Williams,Kamerion Wimbley as LB

Wimbley was only advised if he is listed as a DE in your league like he is in one of mine. And then you play him as a DE in required DE leagues.

However, it sounds like your league is wide open so based on the guys you listed Atogwe is your man.

If it is a DE required league, you listed Trent Cole was on your wire. He is definitely the one you want at DE if you are required to have a DE.

Your second question was if you should change any one of these for the ones you recommended T.J ward for Tilman, kroy biermann or Andra Davis for williams or wimbley?

Again, I don't know if you have required positions. I'm guessing not based on your your question because you asking about if you should start DE kroy bierman over linebacker Andra Davis, etc.

As a golden rule, middle linebackers and weakside linebackers are more consistent tacklers than defensive backs or especially defensive linemen. The exception to the rule are guys like Pollard, Weddle and Atogwe are more valuable in tackle heavy leagues over middle tier linebackers like Andra Davis & Kamerion Wimbley.

So your starting lineup should be Paul Posluszny,Demorrio Williams and Atogwe to start the season based on the guys you told me you have and who are available (please keep in mind that I don't know your scoring system)