IDP Week 16 NFL Fantasy Football 2009 Playoffs & Championship

Please post feedback if I have a guy on here who's injured or if you have news on him.  Again, just like last week, the top 10 guys on each list are pretty close. You could swap Laurinaitis and Hawthorne without too much drop off or change in production. These are just my estimations based on matchup.  I couldn't study each guys game & matchup tendency like I was able to do with my smaller waiver wire list so there is a particular guy you question, post a comment and I'll study him and potentially change his position on the list based on the in depth findings. I can tell you that I looked at the Pitt/Baltimore matchup a bit closer than some of the other games and I see an opportunity for D. Landry and a good opportunity for those of you who must start DTs in K. Gregg.  I even like him above some of the DEs this week with his matchup vs. "BIG Sack" Ben.  -- Happy Holidays ALL!

LINEBACKERS

James Laurinaitis - STL vs ARI
London Fletcher - WAS vs DAL
Patrick Willis - SF at DET
D.J. Williams - DEN vs PHI
Paul Posluszny - BUF vs ATL
David Hawthorne - SEA vs GB
David Harris - NYJ vs IND
Jon Beason - CAR vs NYG
Demorrio Williams - KC at CIN
Gary Brackett - IND at NYJ
Jonathan Vilma - NO vs TB
Lance Briggs - CHI at MIN
Barrett Ruud - TB at NO
Jerod Mayo - NE at JAC
Justin Durant - JAX vs NE
Ray Lewis - BAL vs PIT
DeMeco Ryans - HOU at MIA
Curtis Lofton - ATL at BUF
Kirk Morrison - OAK at CLE
Stephen Tulloch - TEN vs SD
Brian Cushing - HOU at MIA
Clint Session - IND at NYJ
Lawrence Timmons - PIT vs BAL
Chad Greenway - MIN at CHI
Karlos Dansby - ARI at STL
Nick Barnett - GB at SEA
Larry Foote - DET vs SF

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Tyvon Branch - OAK at CLE
Antoine Winfield - MIN at CHI
Bernard Pollard - HOU at MIA
Yeremiah Bell - MIA at HOU
Brian Dawkins - DEN vs PHI (motivated? yup)
Eric Weddle - SD vs TEN
Charles Woodson - GB at SEA
Gibril Wilson - MIA at HOU
Mike Brown - KC at CIN* (high risk/high reward play in heavy tackle leagues)
Tanard Jackson - TB at NO
Erik Coleman - ATL at BUF
D. Landry - BAL vs. PIT
Roman Harper - NO vs TB
Reed Doughty - WAS vs DAL
Charles Tillman - CHI at MIN
Jordan Babineaux - SEA vs GB
Dashon Goldson - SF at DET
Sean Jones - PHI vs DEN
Nick Harper - TEN vs MIA
W. Gay - PIT vs BAL
Chinedum Ndukwe - CIN at KC
Antoine Bethea - IND at NYJ (INT chance)
Melvin Bullitt - IND at NYJ
Quintin Mikell - PHI vs DEN
Michael Lewis - SF at DET
Cedric Griffin - MIN at CHI
Chris Hope - TEN vs SD
William James - DET vs SF


DEFENSIVE LINEMEN

Terrell Suggs - BAL vs PIT
Jared Allen - MIN at CHI
Elvis Dumervill - DEN vs KC
David Bowens - CLE vs OAK
Trent Cole - PHI vs DEN
Mario Williams - HOU at MIA
Trevor Scott - OAK at CLE
Will Smith - NO vs TB
Joey Porter - MIA vs Hou
Mathias Kiwanuka - NYG at CAR
Chris Kelsay - BUF vs ATL
Aaron Schobel - BUF vs ATL
Ray Edwards - MIN at CHI
Kroy Biermann - ATL at BUF
Stylez White - TB at NO
K. Gregg - BAL vs Pitt
Justin Tuck - NYG at CAR
Shaun Ellis - NYJ vs IND
Corey Williams - CLE at OAK
Randy Starks - MIA at HOU
Calais Campbell - ARI at STL
Raheem Brock - IND at NYJ
John Abraham - ATL at BUF
Kyle Vanden Bosch - TEN vs SD
William Hayes - TEN vs SD
Darnell Dockett - ARI at STL
Matt Shaughnessy - OAK at CLE
Adewale Ogunleye - CHI at MINL
Derrick Harvey - JAX vs NE
Justin Smith - SF at DET
Chris Long - STL vs ARI
Sedrick Ellis - NO vs TB
Darren Howard - PHI vs DEN
Andre Carter - WAS vs NYG (INJ)


26 comments:

Anonymous said...

hey monk!
can we expect another big game out of demorrio williams? ive got him starting my LB spot in my championship game, hopefully it pans out. i also have pollard my starting DB and allen my DL.

Ttrang said...

Bryan scott...boy
Whose next in line to fill his role, any idea?

Nick said...

Hey Monk!

First off, thanks for all your help throughout the season - I found your blog about week 8 or 9, and this season being my first IDP league, I feel your advice helped me get to the playoffs, despite some unlucky decisions on offense. Two games left to win it all! Wish me luck!

My question: You said "for the final week" - does that mean you're not going to make a post for week 17? Just wondering because that is when my league's championship game is. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Hey Monk, I'm a former champ who died yesterday but did manage to capture the division title thanks in large part to your weekly articles and appreciate the time and effort you put in this season!! As I look to the future I need to pick 2 of the following to build my defensive nucleus for next season. My def is as follows.
DL - J. Tuck
LB - D. Hawthorne
Lb - B. Ruud
LB - C. Lofton
LB - DJ. Williams
DB - B. Pollard

(I'm lobbying for 4 keepers this year)..lol. Thanks Monk!

Wayne

J said...

I get 1 point per tackle and 1 point for each assisted tackle. 2 points per sack and interception.

Safety: I currently have Mike Brown, who should I pick up for the final 2 weeks, Erik Coleman or Eric Weddle?

Corner: I currently have Tanard Jackson and he has NO and ATL, but he's played both with so-so results. Should I pick up Harper or Winfield?

Joey said...

Hey Monk,

No return yards in my IDP. 1 Point for Solo, Zero for Assited. 4 points for sack and int. 8 points for DEF Td. The following guys are who I have.

D - Beason
D- James Harrison
DB - Adrian Wilson
DB - Brian Dawkins
DL - Darnell Dockett
BN - Julius Peppers
BN - Cedric Griffin


Would I be crazy to start Griffin over Harrison? Harrison hasnt done anything really over the last 4 weeks and Griffin is playing Chicago this week (Cutler throws alot of INT). Also would Wilson and Dockett be good starts against the Rams or would Peppers be a good play against NYG?

I need your help as this is for the championship, also any waiver wire pick up advice would be helpful.

Thanks,

Joey T.

Anonymous said...

Booyah, in the big dance!! Thanks Monk. What's the haps with Bryan Scott and a good replacement at his LB position? What happens to Hawthorne with Curry not playing? Any good plug in at LB for the Texans? I know lots of q's but this is good ol fashion CASH money and my D is suffering. Thanks Will

Michael Monk said...

Demorrio Williams vs. Cincinatti is solid. I like him!

Michael Monk said...

@Ttrang

Comment
Bryan scott...boy
Whose next in line to fill his role, any idea?

Answer
If you mean, out of the rest of the league, I'll be putting that list together very shortly of other guys to get, but if you mean on that same team, George Wilson is no slouch at SS vs. Atlanta.

Michael Monk said...

@ Nick

You're very welcome. I'm glad I could be part of your success.

Yes, I'll be around to answer any week 17 questions. I didn't know there were many leagues left that play week 17 ball.

Michael Monk said...

@ Wayne

Based on your keeper list:
DL - J. Tuck
LB - D. Hawthorne
Lb - B. Ruud
LB - C. Lofton
LB - DJ. Williams
DB - B. Pollard

Answer
The 2 guys to keep on that list would be C. Lofton and B. Ruud. They're the youngest and have the most probability of very little change in their scheme so their the safest.

Michael Monk said...

@ J

Question

I get 1 point per tackle and 1 point for each assisted tackle. 2 points per sack and interception.

Question
Safety: I currently have Mike Brown, who should I pick up for the final 2 weeks, Erik Coleman or Eric Weddle?

Answer:
I actually like the direction Brown has gone the last couple weeks. Your going to think I'm nuts but I like him vs. Cincy and then vs. Denver better than both of the other 2 guys matchups to finish the season. Weddle has not been lighting it up, even before his missed games and the game he did well in was vs. Cincy who Brown gets next. And we already saw Brown get 9 solos vs. Den, who he faces his final game. Mike Brown was "the man" in Chicago and has very big play potential in him. He was a ball hawk and an endzone hawk when he played for them. Those types of instincts done go away and they can't be taught. His matchups are VERY, VERY good and he's playing really well right now.

QUESTION
Corner: I currently have Tanard Jackson and he has NO and ATL, but he's played both with so-so results. Should I pick up Harper or Winfield?

ANSWER
Yes, Winfield, definitely.

Michael Monk said...

@ Joey
No return yards in my IDP. 1 Point for Solo, Zero for Assited. 4 points for sack and int. 8 points for DEF Td. The following guys are who I have.

D - Beason
D- James Harrison
DB - Adrian Wilson
DB - Brian Dawkins
DL - Darnell Dockett
BN - Julius Peppers
BN - Cedric Griffin


Would I be crazy to start Griffin over Harrison? Harrison hasnt done anything really over the last 4 weeks and Griffin is playing Chicago this week (Cutler throws alot of INT). Also would Wilson and Dockett be good starts against the Rams or would Peppers be a good play against NYG?

ANSWER
Not nuts at all. I'd go Griffin over Harrison, yes. I'd leave Wilson, but Dockett or Peppers. Wow, do you have a coin to flip? These DLs this year are tough. Everything in me says Peppers will get a sack, but that might be hit. 1 sack and no other stats. Peppers is playing well and he will want to finish the season strong on a "big stage". I predicted someone against the Rams not to long ago and there were nearly no sacks against the Rams in that game. So I think I'd go with the better athlete in Peppers, who has been getting sacks.

Michael Monk said...

@ Will

Congratulations Will!

Question
Booyah, in the big dance!! Thanks Monk. What's the haps with Bryan Scott and a good replacement at his LB position? What happens to Hawthorne with Curry not playing? Any good plug in at LB for the Texans? I know lots of q's but this is good ol fashion CASH money and my D is suffering.

Answer
I think Hawthorne will be fine. I'll get that list posted of possible guys to use for those of you that lost Scott. It should be up by tomorrow afternoon.

RJ Chavez said...

new to your site and am always appreciative of those who bust their butts for the betterment of others! ;)

i've made it to the final game and have fletcher, hawthorne, yeremiah bell, pollard, and trent cole.

based on matchups, is there any upgrade that you see from these players, and would you plug in bell or pollard this week? thanks for your help, mate.

Michael Monk said...

@RJ Chavez

Thank you!

Question

i've made it to the final game and have fletcher, hawthorne, yeremiah bell, pollard, and trent cole.

based on matchups, is there any upgrade that you see from these players, and would you plug in bell or pollard this week? thanks for your help, mate.

Answer
I do like Pollard. If you league awards solo & assists, he's a no brainer. He's outscored my linebackers for 4 weeks in a row. And I've got DJ Williams, Mayo, Lofton, Laurinaitis (he outscored Pollard one of those weeks) and Hawthorne. I like that Miami matchup. So, again, it depends on your scoring, but he's been money. I think Bell vs. Houston is interesting. The Gibril Wilson thing or Bell thing has been a bit annoying this year, but Houston is a passing team that gives Bell an uptick. Hawthorne vs. GB looks unappetizing at first, but because Seattle is so lousy, it's not your "normal" Packer strategy. They can run the ball on Seattle and Hawthorne will get his opportunities. So I think Hawthorne is you other no brainer. And I saved the biggest "uptick" for last. Fletcher. I love him vs. Dallas. Trent Cole vs. anyone is good, but if you're not required to start a DL, then I'd go with ALL, but Cole. Unless your league rewards super high points for sacks. But the matchup vs. Denver is just OK for me. He might squeak in a sack and 3 tackles, but I think the rest of your guys have a lot more opportunity. Now if you're required to start a DL, he's your man. And I think the one that sits in this group is Bell. Pollard starts vs. MIA.

Good Luck!

Anonymous said...

Yo Monk!

I start 4 lb's. The two obvious starts are>
1.D. Hawthorne
2.DJ. Williams

K. Brooking, D. Ryans, C. Pace, S. Tulloch J. Johnson (bal)
.70 tackle, .35ast tkl, 2FF, 6pts int, 6pts sack

Let me know what i should do.

Keep up the informative information you bring to the table every week!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Love the column!!! I have Andre Carter slated to play the Cowboys, but he has a torn bicep and I think that match-up is awful anyway.

I can pick up a LB to replace him, and W. Witherspoon v. Denver, L. Timmons v. Baltimore, and J. Farrior v. Baltimore.

Most attractive match-up? Thanks!

Michael Monk said...

Thanks!

I like Timmons best out of that group this week. Farrior and Timmons were pretty even last time they played Baltimore.

Timmons got 5 solos 2 assists and 2 sacks.

Farrior got 5 solos 1 assist and 1 sack.

Part of me was VERY tempted to list Woodley above Timmons. He got 7 solos and 1 sack vs. Baltimore last time. In fact Woodley has had a sack in 5 games in row (7.5 sacks since week 10) I just don't quite have the guts to list an outside linebacker over an inside linebacker with the playoffs on the line. But I can tell you I was EXTREMELY close to doing that. I just don't want put anyone's team at risk with a "gut call" during the playoffs.

Michael Monk said...

QUESTION

I start 4 lb's. The two obvious starts are>
1.D. Hawthorne
2.DJ. Williams

K. Brooking, D. Ryans, C. Pace, S. Tulloch J. Johnson (bal)
.70 tackle, .35ast tkl, 2FF, 6pts int, 6pts sack

Answer
D. Ryans and Tulloch are you're guys! Brooking is tempting because he could get a sack on the Skins, but I don't know how much Dallas will be on D and it's too risky. Pace will have a very hard time getting a sack on Manning and J. Johnson is slightly intriguing because it is Big Ben and he does give up sacks, but that's a WHOLE LOT of risk going with Johnson over the clearly safer plays of Ryans and Tulloch. Those guys combined with Hawthrorn & Williams are a very solid group.

Good Luck!

Anonymous said...

Monk, Will here again, last game to play, I dumped all my offense bench this morning and picked up a few D players. Please tell me what you think about my 4th and final LB position, standard yahoo 2p tackle 1 assist, and 2-3 for the extras.


4th-Please Choose oneTimmons, Witherspoon, Ashley Palmer(filling in for Scott) McRath (filling in for Bullock)

It's hard for me to start those guys that are filling in and I'm leaning towards Timmons but...You are the Guru.

Hopefully..........................Fist Pumpin Like a Champ!!!

Will

Greg said...

Hey Monk,

I need to decide between Winfield, Branch, and Pollard. Right now, I'm leaning towards Winfield vs Cutler. Would you agree? I have a feeling that Cleveland and Miami will run the ball quite a bit more for my other two options. Thanks for any insight and happy holidays to you and your family!

Michael Monk said...

@ Greg

That depends on your scoring. If you get credit for solos and assists and they are decent #'s like 2 points for solo and 1 point for assist and your INTs are something like 4 or 5 per INT then Pollard or Branch are safer. But if your league is geared more toward big plays and INTs then Winfield is your man. Just remember that Winfield is a little like Revis or the Oakland CB who's name I can's spell. Team's gameplan not to throw in his direction. He's such a good CB that it can limit opportunities. So he is a higher risk/reward player than Branch or Pollard.

If I were to put them in order of safest guys to use, it would be:

Branch
Pollard
Winfield

Pollard and Winfield are dependent on a couple "extras". Winfield with pass deflections & INTs and Pollard with FFs, INTs or a potential sack.

Todd said...

Hey Monk!

Loved the column this season! Last final, *crucial* question:

I'm up by 6 points, he has Favre to play and I have L Briggs to play, in a 1pt solo, 0.5 assist, 3 pt sack/int league.

Should I swap Briggs for A Winfield? Winfield seems like a swing for the fence play, but he's been getting good tackles.

Who would you go with to maximize your chance of winning?

Michael Monk said...

@Todd

QUESTION

Loved the column this season! Last final, *crucial* question:

I'm up by 6 points, he has Favre to play and I have L Briggs to play, in a 1pt solo, 0.5 assist, 3 pt sack/int league.

Should I swap Briggs for A Winfield? Winfield seems like a swing for the fence play, but he's been getting good tackles.

Who would you go with to maximize your chance of winning?

Answer
That is an excellent question. Lets break down the facts.

Farve put up 392 yards & 3 TDs last time he faced Chicago. He won't do that well this time because his confidence is shaken and he's off his game after these last 2 beat downs he's received. 2 good things could happen here. One, Farve plays crappy and they just run the ball because they can handle the Bears. Or, better yet, they sit Farve part way through and rest him.

So let's see who's riskier in this one. Briggs or Winfield.

The first thing to know is Briggs is fresh off of a 13 tackle performance vs. Baltimore and now he's playing on Monday Night Football against a run first team who will probably be leading the entire game. The bad news is Briggs has been inconsistent this year and has 50/50 shot at coming up short for you.

Winfield has only played in 2 games since being injured but he recorded 9 solos and an FF vs. Cincy and 8 solos and a sack last week vs. Carolina. So those 2 games have proven that he hasn't lost a step.

He has an excellant chance at an INT vs. Cutler and Cutler should need to throw a lot to stay in this game. Winfield traditionally plays very well at night on the big stage. How many times have we seen Winfield return one for a TD on MNF.

Bottom line is I would go Winfield. He's your only shot in case Farve has a big night. And if Farve doesn't and Winfield only has an average night, I think he still gives you a solid 6 solos and a couple PDs.

Anonymous said...

I should digg your post so other people are able to see it, very helpful, I had a tough time finding the results searching on the web, thanks.

- Norman