IDP Fantasy Football 2009 - The Year of the Defensive Back!?

Safeties & Corners - the new IDP studs over LBs?

You could really see the IDP trend change last year.

As you'd look through the box scores in 2008, you'd consistently see DBs/Safties getting 7-9 solos, plus pass deflections, an INT and the good ones force fumbles and get sacks.

The bottom line was your #2 & #3 LBs were getting you 14-17 points on good days and many DBs on the waiver wire were getting 24-27 points. You'd see guys in your league pick up these guys like a Kevin Payne from Chicago and they'd get 5 points out of him the following week.

The problem was how to "catch this lightening in a bottle". It's difficult to consistently predict when guys NOT named Winfield, Otogwe or Gibril Wilson are going to go off. For instance, Cortland Finnegan got 25 points the other night against the Steelers. We knew Finnegan was good, and is probably not even on your waiver wire, but #1 LB numbers good? Seriously, did anyone really think Big Ben would end up throwing for more yards than Drew Brees week 1?

So what do you do to get in on this trend on a "poor man's budget"?

This is not going to be easy for you to do, but my recommendation is to cut your riskiest draft pick to make room for a boom or bust guy you can pick up on a week to week basis. Playing matchups like this can be a lot of fun and very rewarding when your weekly research pays off.

Trust me, it was really hard for me to do what I'm suggesting. I get very attached to my secret sleeper draft picks and all summer I looked forward to sneaking Keith Rivers out from under everyone in my league. Well, I did, but  I made the decision to drop Rivers to open this slot I'm suggesting to you. That's how much I believe in this strategy. Could Keith Rivers potentially get me 15 points a week? Maybe. But my gut says he'll be under 10 points a week and I want to win my league, not finish 3rd or 4th. If you want to be #1 and win your league, you have to swing for the fences from at least one slot on your team. Sure, you could get a fairly solid SS who consistently gets you 6 or 8 points a game or you can play the weekly matchups from that slot and get a 15 to 20 or even higher guy.  Maybe you choose guys from the wire who are playing the Cardinals or New Orleans. Or maybe it's the week side DE for whoever is rushing Big Ben. You have to get aggressive early or you won't make it into the playoffs in competitive leagues.

Don't get me wrong, you must have a strong foundation first in order to attempt this strategy. I know I'm going to get consistent play out of my LBs Jerod Mayo, Curtis Lofton and Laurinaitis. And I obviously feel comfortable with my DB Otogwe, but I want to give myself the opportunity to have a potential "grand slam" pick each week.


So why should you trust my advice this year for waiver wire pick ups? Besides doing research  for a living, I LOVE IDP & I've been playing and winning for a long time.

IDP Week 2 NFL Fantasy Football 2009 Waiver Wire Pick Ups

IDP Week 2 - Digging for Waiver Wire Gold

DBs (Corners & Safeties)
Starting out in Detroit with new corner Anthony Henry
He finished with 10 solos 2 assts 1 INT and 1 deflection WOW!!!  So that tells you 2 things. The first is it's always worth a shot to start a decent corner against New Orleans. The second is Henry is worth a pickup regardless. Let's face it. All teams in the league feel they can do anything they want to Detroit so the throwing will not slow down on this team. 


Sticking with the same team, I really like SS L. Delmas for the Lions this year. He's going to get a lot of tackles on Detroit, both run & pass.  Against NO, in his first game as a pro, he got 6 tackles, 1 pd and 1 fumble recovery (for a touchdown, no less!). Not a bad first day of work straight out of school. Next week, he gets Minnesota who SS A. Elam (Browns) did very well against week 1 and Mr. "All Day" will only need to put in a half day against the Lions as C. Taylor will come in & earn his second string paycheck. Farve is a dinker and dunker to C. Taylor, V. Shianco and Harvin so SS Delmas should get the same opportunities that Elam (7-1 & a sack). Delmas is my highest recommendation of pickup and play this week.



The other rookie name that I think is a little better than L. Delmas (for the year, not this week) is Oakland's SS T. Branch. who finished with 8 solos 1 asst & 1 pd against the Chargers week 1. While you're in those same box scores, take a look at CB Chris Johnson's #'s. He's "the other corner" on the Raiders and will be VERY heavily targeted all year long. He finished with 7 tckls 1 asst and 2pd week 1. He'll be on WR Mark Bradley this week, in all probability, who Croyle liked throwing too. I just don't know how much the Raiders will be on D. These teams are pretty evenly matched and I don't see one defense being on the field significantly more than the other. It won't be near as lop-sided as the Det./Minn. game for instance. The Detroit d-linemen are going to need oxygen and I.Vs of fluids hooked up to their "Marathon running" butts Sunday.

So who has New Orleans next week? Philly.  And I recommend picking up Eagle corner Sheldon Brown. He got 2 INTs against Carolina week 1 and New Orleans will try to avoid Assante Samuel. Whether or not he gets an interception week 2,  I believe he'll get the tackles. Keep in mind the goal of this blog, however. I'm recommending guys I believe will be on your waiver wire. If by some miracle Samuel or Q.Mikell are on your wire, grab them first, but Sheldon Brown could be a sneaky play for next week if they are not available on your wire.

DB PICK UP OF THE WEEK is KC safety Mike Brown. The only reason Mike Brown is my "official" pick up of the week over Delmas is because you'll want to use him regularly all year. Though he will be a good play against the Raiders this week, I don't think KC will be on defense as much agaist the Raiders as Detroit will be vs. the Vikings. That's the only thing that gives Delmas the edge this week. Currently, Mike Brown is flying under the radar & you need to grab him if you play with other savvy people in your league. If you do not and your in a neighborhood "yahoos" league. Get Delmas & use him this week and drop him for M. Brown next week.


They cut very good SS Bernard Pollard for him so they must have seen something special (or else that head Coach is just plain nuts. Time will tell on that one because the one issue with Mike Brown is he's been injured more often than Bob Sanders. So keep that in mind.) They made this move just before the season started so there's a good chance Brown is still on your wire.  He had 8 solos and 4 assts week 1. Week 2, he gets Oakland and he will see lots of J. Russell's favorite target Zach Miller as well as plenty of tackles opportunities since KCs defensive line is NOT GOOD and their LBs are bad outside of D. Johnson. He has a decent chance for an INT too this week so the bottom line is you'll be fine between him & Delmas. Mike Brown will have a lot of opportunities this year and had a great nose for both the football & endzone when he played for Chicago.

LBs (Linebackers)
Urlacher down; Hillenmeyer Up - there's a new middle linebacker in "my kind of town":, Chicago. Urlacher is out for the season and that sucks for all NFL fans around the country. However, it brings some hope to the IDP world. Let's all be honest with ourselves in the Fantasy Football world. Although we are all human and do feel bad for a guy who works so hard in the off season to get ready for run at the Lambardi Trophy, all FF's count on injury as part of our game plan.  I won my season league last year riding both of Denver's LBs Winborn and Woodyard. So how will Hillenmeyer do? Good enough that Lance Briggs has already stated that he's staying where he is and feel fully confident in Hillenmeyer at MLB. However, it is a little disconcerning that he finished with the same amount of tackles as backup RB Garrett Wolfe (2). Urlacher went out fairly early in the game and I would have thought Hillenmeyer would have finished with at least 4 tackles. At this point, I would rank him as I would Bengal's Dhani Jones. And just like D. Jones, I would go get Bengal's Maualuga instead and put him on my bench sooner than Hillenmeyer. In otherwords, don't get too excited about this "new toy". He doesn't have much upside. Obviously, watch and see, but my gut says "Pass" on this one. 
 
Let's start in last years fantasy gold for waiver wire studs - Denver. I'm sure many of you who played last year fondly remember Winborn and Woodyard putting up monster numbers in place of DJ Williams and Nate Webster. The lucky candidate this year is Andra Davis. He's in position to make more tackles than fantasy stud DJ Williams and I fear this may be the case this year (I hope I'm wrong since DJ is on my team).  But doesn't that make Andra a very worthy guy to snatch and watch?

From there, we go to whoever is playing the New York Giants. Next week, it is the Cowboys where Keith Brooking is playing the role that Zack Thomas played last year on the Cowboys (the pre-retirement home for Linebackers). And he put Z. Thomas like numbers up week 1. Next week, he will do VERY well against the run first Giants. If Keith Brooking is available on your wire, grab him and use him this week. Look for him to put up LB #3 type numbers. (7 solos 2 assts 1 pass deflection)


DO NOT PICK UP Bills SLB K. Ellison who finished Monday nights game with 11 tackles and 5 assists. HUGE NUMBERS! Unfortunately, SLBs always do well against the Pats and Ellison's history since 2006 dictates that this is just one lucky game out of many, many mediocre starts.  He's very worthy to keep an eye on, but I'm afraid this may be just a one week wonder against a team that runs heavily to the strong side.

Another run heavy team, the Dolphins helped all 3 Atlanta Falcons LBs put up good numbers week 1. So instead of concentrationg on Falcons LBS, I'm going to look forward to who has Miami next week and that is Indy. This is where we'll find my LB PICK UP OF THE WEEK, Clint Session. Last year, he was very good at SLB and this year he moved over to the more tackle heavy position as WLB. He put up 5 solos 1 asst at Jacksonville and I could see 10 total tackles and a couple pass deflections from him next week. He also has a good knack for INTs.

DLs (Defensive Linemen)
Arizona's Campbell finished with 6 tackles and a pass deflection. Go get him if he's there!

Baltimore's Kelly Gregg, who led the Baltimore D in tackles week 1 from Nose Tackle, is one to go get

DL PICK UP OF THE WEEK is Chicago DE A. Brown if he is still on your wire. Why? Three great reasons! He plays opposite of sack master Ogunleye so he gets less attention. Two, he had 3 tackles and 2 assists week 1. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY, they play PLEASE SACK ME "BIG BEN" next week. When a QB apologizes to his O line for taking the wrap on allowing so many sacks because he holds the ball so long, you gotta like your chances as the owner of a DE facing "the Burg".

Week 2 2008 Fantasy weekly Rankings - Eddie Royal talk and more

When choosing a fantasy ranking or weekly start/bench site, look at their archived articles. Every expert gets the picks wrong and that's OK. However, it's the sleeper picks that make the difference between a bad source and a good source. Not a single FF expert could have told you that Tory Holt would have 1 catch or that Eddie Royal would have 9 for 146 & a TD. However, the good ones express that they have a hunch due to the matchup. Over my years of scouring the web for the best sources, I have never found the "major" sites to be as accurate. "Off the radar" blogs like Bruno Boys, FFLibrarian, Rotoworld are the gems. MSN Fox Sports & CBS are the ABSOLUTE WORST sources and are very wrong every time. Their strategy is to go with the biggest names that everyone knows and ride the "bandwagon" express. After you get past the first 10 big names on their chart, it looks like they used a program to randomly scramble and assign stats to the rest of the players on the list. This does not win you your league championship. My wife could tell you that LT, Brady, Moss, Owens and Romo are good.

Espn & Yahoo occasionally give decent tidbits. Brad Evan takes some gamble with his sleepers and I like to see that. Matthew Berry for ESPN swings for the fences and I respect that. When he whiffs, he whiffs huge, but he's not afraid to tell you to pick up a no name like James Jones from GB (when he comes back from his injury) and then tells you the reason. It's because James Jones and Aaron Rodgers were on the practice squad together for years and have a great chemistry. That is good sound football advice. A sweet little podcast called Fantasy Freakin' Football was very high on snagging Eddie Royal late in all your drafts. WOW! Great Call! Watching him, you can tell that he is here to stay. He reminds me of Gary Clark, a short 1980's Redskins WR, who just flat out knew how to get open and what to do with it after he caught it.

My best advice when searching Google is to type in 2 names of players that you're trying to decide between and then add the words 2008 and Fantasy to narrow the search (IDP search example: Lofton Brooking Fantasy 2008) Maybe add the search term "IDP" in there to narrow more. Another thing to do is go into Google's "advanced search" and choose the "dates" option to narrow articles posted within the last week. It's amazing how much knowledge "true" football fans have out there. So travel off the beaten path and get away from those "commercial" sites.